Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 10

Date: 15 June 2026, Monday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Ferroviária		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.75
	2.08	2.80	3.65	Watch
	2.07	2.59	3.97
	2.13	2.68	4.35	Watch
	2	2.63	3.9
	2.08	2.56	4.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.94)	2.66 ↓ (3.02)	4 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
43.6%

Draw
33.9%

Barra Santa Catarina
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

29.8%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

28.1%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	54.5%	9.1%

Ferroviária - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Barra will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 8. Alencar 38. Allison 9. Denilson Chaves 29. Eduardo Oliveira 7. Fau 22. Felipe Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 5. Ricardinho 11. Vitor Barreto (C) 40. Ze Vitor	1. Ewerton (G) 11. Cleo Silva 6. Da Rocha 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 3. Jean Pierre (C) 7. Natan Costa 9. Saymon 8. Tete 5. Vava Franca 10. Warley Jr
Substitutes
24. Carvalho I. (G) 36. Douglas Skilo 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 34. Gustavo Jundi (G) 14. Jhonatan Garcia 18. Rafael Carillho 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M. 25. Vinni Faria	14. Diniz T. 12. Fabian Volpi (G) 13. Joao Vinicius 19. Marcelinho 16. Matheus Barbosa 17. Matheuzinho 18. Nicolas 15. Pablo Gabriel 20. Vinicius Popo
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Franco B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Tete 🟨,
27', Ricardinho 🟨,
29', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
64', Denilson Chaves (Penalty Awarded),
65', 1 - 0, Vitor Barreto ⚽,
65', Tete ↓, Pablo Gabriel ↑,
72', Da Rocha ↓, Nicolas ↑,
72', Saymon ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
74', Vitor Barreto ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
76', Allison ↓, Rafael Carillho ↑,
76', Fabio Soares ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
79', Natan Costa ↓, Matheus Barbosa ↑,
79', Cleo Silva ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
83', Denilson Chaves ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
83', Alencar ↓, Vinni Faria ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 15).

Ferroviária has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barra is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Barra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ferroviária is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95% Barra FC: 2.7%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	Amazonas - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
13.05.26	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TWWLT
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Serie C
01.06.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Brusque	2:2 ✺
23.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Guarani	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Anápolis - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Corinthians - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Caxias	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLTLT

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