Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports


	Santa Cruz Recife		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	2.9	3.7
	2.25	2.88	3.15	Watch
	2.36	3.05	3.25
	2.09	2.83	4.18
	2.25	2.7	3.2
	2.31	2.98	3.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.02)	2.89 ↓ (3.1)	3.47 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
41.7%

Draw
31.8%

Ferroviária
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

30.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

30.4%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Santa Cruz will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 27. Edson Miranda 3. Eurico 37. Everaldo 7. Fabinho 30. Jefferson Bahia 5. Pedro Favela 17. Ronald 23. Tiago Marques (C) 18. Vitinho 31. Ze Mario	31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 38. Allison 9. Denilson Chaves 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 5. Ricardinho (C) 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
6. Alex Ruan 16. Andrey 28. Eron 25. Gabriel Souza (G) 8. Leo Costa 29. Marcos Andre 13. Matheus Vinicius 21. Nilton 20. Patrick Allan 19. Renato 11. Robinho 26. Silva	24. Carvalho I. (G) 33. Douglas Skilo 7. Fabio Soares 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 18. Rafael Carillho 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 19. Thiago M.
Coaches
Cristian Souza	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Thiago Coelho 🟥,
12', Everaldo ↓, Gabriel Souza ↑,
25', 0 - 1, Denilson Chaves ⚽,
45', Ronald 🟨,
45+3', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fabinho ↓, Renato ↑,
46', Vitor Barreto ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
46', Ze Mario ↓, Alex Ruan ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Gustavo Medina (Own goal),
57', Allison ↓, Rafael Carillho ↑,
57', Ricardinho ↓, Fabio Soares ↑,
65', Jefferson Bahia ↓, Andrey ↑,
66', Denilson Chaves 🟨,
71', Alencar ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
77', Albano 🟨,
77', Eduardo Oliveira ↓, Rhuan ↑,
85', Tiago Marques ↓, Eron ↑,
86', Gabriel Souza 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ferroviária may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Santa Cruz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91% Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
23.05.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Internacional de Limeira - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Guarani - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Amazonas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWWLL
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
24.05.26	Amazonas - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
13.05.26	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
07.05.26	CA Juventus - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWLTT

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