Match Info

Serie B - Round 3

Date: 17 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Gomes A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Ferroviária		Atlético Goianiense

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.5	2.95	2.75
	2.65	2.9	2.85
	2.76	3.06	2.87
	2.72	2.92	2.82	Watch
	2.5	3	2.9
	2.82	2.91	2.7	Watch
	2.65	2.9	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.19)	2.94 ↓ (2.98)	2.82 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
35.1%

Draw
31.8%

Atlético Goianiense
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

31.2%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.3%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferroviária's form might have worsened.

Atlético Goianiense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Goianiense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Goianiense than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Goianiense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	70%	10%

Ferroviária - Atlético Goianiense Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Atlético GO will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 31. Ze Mario 37. Thiago Lopes 8. Alencar 77. Juninho 35. Netinho 20. Albano 44. Maycon 92. Carlao (C)	1. Vladimir (G) 2. Ruan 3. Matheus Felipe 4. Pedro Henrique 6. Guilherme Romao 10. Ariel 8. Rhaldney (C) 5. Willian Maranhao 11. Willian Pottker 9. Sandro Lima 7. Marcelinho
Substitutes
10. Cassio Gabriel 14. Eric 83. Erik 25. Ian Luccas 70. Igor Bolt 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 99. Quirino 5. Ricardinho 9. Ronaldo Alves 29. Tarik 57. Wesley Pomba	14. Alix Vinicius 12. Anderson (G) 20. da Silva Ramos R. N. 17. Kauan 16. Leo Naldi 15. Luizao 19. Martinez F. 13. Rai Ramos 18. Robert Conceicao
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Vladimir 🟨,
33', Guilherme Romao 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Thiago Lopes ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Willian Maranhao ↓, Robert Conceicao ↑,
46', Willian Pottker ↓, Kauan ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Gustavo Medina ⚽,
62', Netinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
62', Thiago Lopes ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
64', Ariel ↓, Leo Naldi ↑,
64', Marcelinho ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
72', Juninho ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
72', Albano ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
79', Ruan ↓, da Silva Ramos R. N. ↑,
82', Tarik 🟨,
82', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
90', Maycon 🟨,
90+2', Wesley Pomba 🟨,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Ronaldo Alves (Red Card) Thayllon (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There will not play in Atlético GO: Caio Dantas (Inactive) Shaylon (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.25	Amazonas - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Ferroviária - Remo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
19.03.25	Ituano - Ferroviária	4:1 penalties ✺
15.03.25	Ferroviária - Ituano	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Prudente	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTLWW
- Atlético Goianiense
Brazilian Serie B
13.04.25	Botafogo SP - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
07.04.25	Atlético Goianiense - Athletic Club	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
15.03.25	Anápolis - Atlético Goianiense	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.25	Atlético Goianiense - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Goiano
08.03.25	Atlético Goianiense - Anápolis	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWLLT

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