Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Palmeiras		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.29	4.75	9	Watch
	1.31	4.95	8.8
	1.28	5.41	10.55
	1.34	5.08	8.29	Watch
	1.3	4.6	8.5
	1.32	5.18	9.76	Watch
	1.32	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↑ (1.24)	5 ↓ (5.19)	9.27 ↓ (11.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
71.3%

Draw
18.7%

Guarani
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.2%

17.7%

8.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Palmeiras - Guarani Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Guarani (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 50%). Guarani (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 3. Bruno Fuchs 15. Gomez G. (C) 6. Jefte 32. Martinez E. 30. Lucas Evangelista 18. Mauricio 42. Lopez J. 19. Sosa R. 9. Vitor Roque	1. Caique Franca (G) 3. Raphael 13. Mauricio Antonio 4. Jonathan Costa 6. Emerson Barbosa 5. Willian Farias (C) 8. Nathan Melo 7. Guilherme Parede 10. Kaua Jesus 11. Mirandinha 9. Lucca
Substitutes
40. Allan Elias 8. Andreas Pereira 24. Aranha (G) 43. Benedetti 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 48. Larson 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 17. Marlon Freitas 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J.	17. Dentinho 22. Fabricio Dias 21. Guilherme Cachoeira 23. Hebert 20. Kaua 19. Kewen 12. Mateus Claus (G) 15. Nickollas 18. Povoa M. 14. Ralf 16. Renan Castro 2. Rian
Coaches
Martins J.	Matheus Costa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Lucca ⚽,
29', Willian Farias 🟨,
30', Nathan Melo ↓, Ralf ↑,
41', Jefte 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Ralf 🟨,
55', Martinez E. ↓, Allan Elias ↑,
55', Mauricio ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
65', Jefte ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
65', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Andreas Pereira ↑,
65', Caique Franca 🟨,
69', Guilherme Parede ↓, Hebert ↑,
76', Giay A. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Sosa R. (A),
78', Lucca 🟨,
80', Mirandinha ↓, Dentinho ↑,
80', Lucca ↓, Kewen ↑,
80', Kaua Jesus ↓, Fabricio Dias ↑,
90+5', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Palmeiras is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Guarani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.

In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Arias J. (Inactive) Felipe Anderson (Inactive) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Diego Torres (Yellow Cards) Igor Pereira (Injury) Isaque (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Guarani: Maranhao (Inactive) Rafael Donato (Inactive) Rian (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Palmeiras won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Internacional RS - Palmeiras	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	5:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.02.26	Botafogo SP - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWLT
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Guarani - Botafogo SP	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Portuguesa - Guarani	0:1 ✺
22.01.26	Velo Clube - Guarani	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Guarani - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.02.25	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:4
05.03.23	Guarani - Palmeiras	0:0
06.03.22	Palmeiras - Guarani	2:0
23.04.21	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:2

Upcoming Matches