Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 15

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ferroviária		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.8	3.5	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.5
	2.25	2.88	3.5
	2.29	2.95	3.77
				Watch
	2.4	2.75	3.5
	2.33	2.88	3.52	Watch
	2.28	2.82	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.23)	2.83 ↓ (2.97)	3.54 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
40.9%

Draw
32.9%

Vila Nova
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

31.4%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

30.2%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	11.8%	0%

Ferroviária - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 14 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferroviária: 71.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Ferroviária (5.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Vila Nova (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Vila Nova (2.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ferroviária will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 44. Maycon 66. Edson Lucas 5. Ricardinho (C) 35. Netinho 20. Albano 39. Thayllon 92. Carlao 37. Thiago Lopes	99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Weverton 16. Higor 5. Joao Vieira 27. Igor Henrique 33. Bruno Xavier 10. Dodo 7. Andre Luis 77. Guilherme Parede
Substitutes
8. Alencar 18. Eduardo Oliveira 83. Erik Nascimento 25. Ian Luccas 70. Igor Bolt 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 99. Quirino 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 57. Wesley Pomba	20. Bruno Mendes 19. Gabriel Silva 6. Igor Inocencio 29. Junior Todinho 30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 15. Miticov 18. Paje G. 8. Ralf 21. Ruan Ribeiro 11. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Weverton ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Carlao ⚽, Thayllon (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Netinho 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Dodo (Pen),
67', Bruno Xavier ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
68', Thayllon ↓, Alencar ↑,
68', Thiago Lopes ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
68', Ricardinho ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
69', Weverton 🟨,
74', Wesley Pomba ↓, Kevin ↑,
78', Dodo ↓, Ralf ↑,
78', Guilherme Parede ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
83', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
86', Igor Henrique ↓, Ruan Ribeiro ↑,
86', Andre Luis ↓, Paje G. ↑,
89', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
90+2', Edson Lucas ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
90+9', 1 - 3, Junior Todinho ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).

In recent matches, Ferroviária has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vila Nova has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vila Nova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferroviária will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson (Inactive) Erik Nascimento (Inactive) Juninho (Yellow Cards) Ronaldo Alves (Yellow Cards) Ze Mario (Inactive)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Arilson (Inactive) Emerson Urso (Inactive) Walisson Maia (Inactive) Willian Formiga (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Caua A. (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Marcondes (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Ferroviária - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	Chapecoense - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	América Mineiro - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
29.05.25	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWLWT
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.25	Vila Nova - Atlético Goianiense	1:0 ✺
22.06.25	Amazonas - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
13.06.25	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	0:3 ✺
09.06.25	Criciúma - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
30.05.25	Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 WLLLL

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