The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Vila Nova 40.1%
Draw 33.3%
Grêmio Novorizontino 26.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.1%
30.3%
32.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36%
29.4%
33.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio Novorizontino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio Novorizontino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
66.7%
0%
Vila Nova - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42.8% – 90.6%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DNB - Vila Nova (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Bernardo Schappo 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 27. Igor Henrique 17. Jean Mota 29. Junior Todinho 9. Gabriel Poveda 96. Labandeira F.
1. Airton (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares 37. Cesar Martins 4. Patrick 47. Fabio Matheus 5. Jean Irmer 6. Luis Oyama 28. Marlon (C) 10. Matheus Frizzo 99. Nathan Fogaca 30. Waguininho
Substitutes
11. Dodo 19. Gabriel Silva 18. Gustavo Paje 16. Higor 6. Igor Inocencio 15. Miticov 8. Ralf 21. Ruan Ribeiro 1. Victor Hugo (G) 7. Vinicius Paiva 14. Walisson Maia 22. Weverton
16. Antony 17. Bruno Jose 14. Gabriel Correia 31. Igor Formiga 93. Jordi (G) 9. Lucca 7. Pablo Dyego 18. Pedro Balotelli 22. Ruiz O. 15. Tavinho 8. Willian Farias
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda
Umberto Louzer
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Joao Vieira 🟨,
30', Igor Henrique 🟥,
37', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
40', Patrick 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Jean Irmer ⚽,
45+4', Labandeira F. 🟨,
45+5', Matheus Frizzo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Labandeira F. ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
58', Luis Oyama ↓, Willian Farias ↑,
58', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
69', Waguininho 🟥,
71', Jean Mota ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
71', Junior Todinho ↓, Dodo ↑,
75', Joao Vieira ↓, Miticov ↑,
85', Jean Irmer 🟨,
87', Willian Formiga ↓, Gustavo Paje ↑,
88', Marlon ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
90', Airton 🟨,
90+5', Rodrigo Soares ↓, Igor Formiga ↑,
90+5', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Lucca ↑,
90+6', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
90+7', Pablo Dyego 🟨,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Vila Nova: Arilson
(Inactive)
Davis E.
(Knee Injury)
Diego Torres
(Red Card)
Emerson Urso
(Inactive)
Igor Henrique
(Inactive)
Jean Mota
(Inactive)
Labandeira F.
(Inactive)
Marcondes
(Knee Injury)
Mauricio Kozlinski
(Inactive)
There will not play in Novorizontino: Airton
(Inactive)
Cesar Martins
(Injury)
Dantas
(Yellow Cards)
Leo Natel
(Inactive)
Leo Tocantins
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Inactive)
Robson
(Injury)
Vitinho
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Vila Nova: Lucas Sena
(Inactive)
Tiago Pagnussat
(Injury)
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
Last Results with these Odds
Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.66%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
Brazil
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Halls (G) 
Labandeira F. 
Ruiz O. 
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