Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Fethiye Ilce Stadyumu (Fethiye)

Referee: Olcar B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Turkey	A Spor


	Fethiyespor		Fatih Karagümrükspor

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.5	2.25
	2.8	3.4	2.15
	3.79	3.79	1.83	Watch
	3.63	3.6	1.88
	3.07	3.40	2.23	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.83
	3.97	3.76	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.6)	3.55 ↓ (3.81)	2 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fethiyespor
27.6%

Draw
26.1%

Fatih Karagümrükspor
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

24.2%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

21.7%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fethiyespor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fethiyespor than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fethiyespor will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Karagümrük will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karagümrük: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fethiyespor (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Karagümrük (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fethiyespor (votes: 1 - 50%). Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Akbulut A. (G) 26. Ozcan N. 4. Zengin U. 15. Yilmaz O. 3. Aydin A. 23. Kazan C. 53. Satir B. 48. Pala K. 10. Eralp S. 52. Erdem M. (C) 17. Kosar A.	99. Beklevic F. (G) 24. Ersoy B. 22. Kurucuk F. (C) 94. Cinar A. 33. Kurukalip C. 88. Ahmed T. 19. Onogo Y. 11. Johnson D. 21. Cukur T. 72. Kalayci B. 15. Kone
Substitutes
8. Akgun I. 5. Akyuz S. 77. Cevik R. 80. Demir H. 35. Iscan B. 30. Kaya Y. 7. Okutan M. 79. Ozel M. (G) 6. Yelken B. 33. Yildiz S.	50. Dayar S. 53. Demir K. A. 20. Kalpakli T. 51. Odabas O. 93. Ozmen K. 96. Yandal K. (G) 52. Yetkin A.
Coaches
Karafirtinalar S.	Stanojevic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Kalayci B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Satir B. ↓, Cevik R. ↑,
46', Eralp S. ↓, Akgun I. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Kone ⚽,
49', Akgun I. 🟨,
56', Kosar A. ↓, Okutan M. ↑,
69', Ahmed T. ↓, Kalpakli T. ↑,
74', Ersoy B. ↓, Odabas O. ↑,
78', Kazan C. 🟨,
79', Ozcan N. ↓, Yildiz S. ↑,
83', Kazan C. ↓, Demir H. ↑,
90+1', Kone ↓, Ozmen K. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fethiyespor won 3.

Recent performances by Fethiyespor have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Karagümrük is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fethiyespor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Karagümrük is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Fethiyespor won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fethiyespor won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fethiyespor
Turkish Second League Red Group
28.02.26	Fethiyespor - Isparta 32 Spor	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Adanaspor - Fethiyespor	0:6 ✺
15.02.26	Fethiyespor - Arnavutköy	0:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fethiyespor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Second League Red Group
31.01.26	Fethiyespor - 1461 Trabzon	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWTLW
- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
27.02.26	Trabzonspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Kasımpaşa - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Second League Red Group
03.02.19	Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:0
15.09.18	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fethiyespor	3:1
Turkish Second League White Group
10.03.18	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fethiyespor	2:1
21.10.17	Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
15.01.17	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fethiyespor	0:1
03.09.16	Fethiyespor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
12.04.15	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Fethiyespor	0:0

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