What is the expert prediction for Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Białystok?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Białystok. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Fiorentina vs Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, February 26, 2026)

Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Jovanovic S. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf, ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Fiorentina		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.47	4.33	5.75
	1.52	4.45	5.4
	1.59	4.37	5.42
	1.56	4.39	5.6	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.55	4.49	6.21
	1.58	4	5.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.71)	4.32 ↑ (3.84)	5.63 ↑ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
61.4%

Draw
21.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

24.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

27.2%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78%	12.2%	9.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 32 - 78%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 4 - 9.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 65.3% – 90.7%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DC - Fiorentina (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -2 - Jagiellonia (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lezzerini L. (G) 29. Fortini N. 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. (C) 80. Fabbian G. 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 2. Dodo 91. Piccoli R. 22. Fazzini J.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 70. Pelmard A. 13. Vital B. 27. Wdowik B. 7. Pozo A. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 86. Mazurek B. 72. Jozwiak K. 10. Pululu A. 11. Imaz J.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 63. Bonanno P. 43. de Gea D. (G) 44. Fagioli N. 10. Gudmundsson A. 17. Harrison J. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 65. Parisi F. 6. Ranieri L. 19. Solomon M.	14. Bazdar S. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', Comuzzo P. 🟨,
17', Jozwiak K. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Mazurek B. ⚽,
36', Jozwiak K. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
45+3', 0 - 2, Mazurek B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lezzerini L. ↓, de Gea D. ↑,
46', Fortini N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Mazurek B. ⚽, Pululu A. (A),
62', Mandragora R. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
62', Fazzini J. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
66', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Bazdar S. ↑,
75', Bazdar S. 🟨,
77', Pongracic M. 🟨,
89', Piccoli R. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
90', Drachal D. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 1)
94', Pozo A. 🟨,
100', Solomon M. ↓, Gudmundsson A. ↑,
101', Dodo 🟨,
105+1', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
106', Mazurek B. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
107', 1 - 3, Fagioli N. ⚽,
110', Vital B. 🟨,
112', Vanoli P. 🟨,
114', 2 - 3, Romanczuk T. (Own goal), Kean M. (A),
117', Pozo A. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
118', 2 - 4, Imaz J. ⚽, Pelmard A. (A),
120', Vital B. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-0. Second leg.

Fiorentina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Brescianini M. (Inactive) Christensen O. (Inactive) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Konstantopoulos A. (Inactive) Lozano S. (Inactive) Montoia G. (Inactive) Nahuel M. (Inactive) Stojinovic D. (Injury) Szmyt K. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fiorentina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

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Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Fiorentina: 12.41%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Fiorentina - Torino	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWTL
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.02.26	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3

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