Match Info

Serie A - Round 23

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
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Czech-republic	Sport 1
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Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
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Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Napoli		Fiorentina

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.33	Watch
	1.71	3.6	5
	1.95	3.25	4.45	Watch
	1.98	3.29	4.66
	2.01	3.37	4.23	Watch
	1.91	3.2	4
	1.94	3.31	4.72
	1.96	3.25	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.66)	3.31 ↓ (3.71)	4.47 ↓ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
49.7%

Draw
28.9%

Fiorentina
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

25.6%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

25.1%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Napoli's form might have worsened.

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Napoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	13.5%	4.1%

Napoli - Fiorentina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Fiorentina (1.83) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Napoli (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (61 of 74 users predict this - 82.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.76% – 91.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (39 of 39 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 44 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 40 - 90.9%). Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 5. Juan Jesus 4. Buongiorno A. 3. Gutierrez M. 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A. 19. Hojlund R. 20. Elmas E.	43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 15. Comuzzo P. 5. Pongracic M. 21. Gosens R. 80. Fabbian G. 44. Fagioli N. 4. Brescianini M. 19. Solomon M. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.
Substitutes
31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 98. De Chiara E. 25. Ferrante M. (G) 23. Giovane 9. Lukaku R. 17. Olivera M.	62. Balbo L. 53. Christensen O. (G) 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 17. Harrison J. 20. Kean M. 60. Kouadio E. 1. Lezzerini L. (G) 8. Mandragora R. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 6. Ranieri L.
Coaches
Conte A.	Vanoli P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Vergara A. ⚽, Meret A. (A),
30', Di Lorenzo G. ↓, Olivera M. ↑,
44', Fabbian G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fabbian G. ↓, Mandragora R. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Gutierrez M. ⚽, Vergara A. (A),
54', Buongiorno A. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Solomon M. ⚽,
70', Brescianini M. ↓, Kean M. ↑,
70', Gosens R. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
70', Solomon M. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
79', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
84', Vergara A. ↓, Giovane ↑,
90+1', Hojlund R. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Napoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Napoli is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) David Neres (Ankle Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Politano M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Mazzocchi P. (Concussion) Milinkovic-Savic V. (Muscle Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Parisi F. (Thigh Injury) Piccoli R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:25. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:15. (average 2:1.4).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Fiorentina: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6:12	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Napoli - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
25.01.26	Juventus - Napoli	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Copenhagen - Napoli	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
17.01.26	Napoli - Sassuolo	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Napoli - Parma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTWT
- Fiorentina
Coppa Italia
27.01.26	Fiorentina - Como	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.01.26	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:3
09.03.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:1
04.01.25	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:3
17.05.24	Fiorentina - Napoli	2:2
Italian Super Cup
18.01.24	Napoli - Fiorentina	3:0
Italian Serie A
08.10.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:3
07.05.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:0

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