Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Robert Bobin (Bondoufle)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Fleury 91		Aubagne

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.40	3.50
	1.92	3.35	3.55
	1.9	3.74	3.99
	2.05	3.44	3.19
	1.84	3.65	3.8
	1.81	3.48	3.77
	1.91	3.4	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.09)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	3.62 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fleury 91
48.4%

Draw
26.3%

Aubagne
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

26.9%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

26.5%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fleury 91 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Aubagne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleury 91 than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Fleury 91 - Aubagne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Alette G. (G) 9. Anne S. 18. Cisse C. 2. Colombo F. 19. Farade K. 28. Homssa N. 26. Karamoko H. 20. Khetir C. 6. Lefebvre G. 3. Plisson T. 7. Verdier Y.	16. Moreira T. (G) 24. Ahamada S. 23. Aradj Y. 22. Bouaziz W. 10. Cisse K. 5. Doucoure R. 19. Doukansy B. 26. Nehari M. 18. Oudjani A. 17. Porsan Clemente J. 27. Sahraoui J.
Substitutes
22. Badin C. 14. Belliard M. 17. Lavigne V. 10. Le Mehaute Y. 1. Petit A. (G) 11. Rivas J. 8. Thomas T.	91. Ahamada A. (G) 21. Ahamadi M. 32. Assoumani M. 20. Bellebrahim A. 11. Tafni B. 4. Valme R. 9. Zemoura Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Bouaziz W. ⚽, Aradj Y. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Farade K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 2, Bouaziz W. ⚽, Oudjani A. (A),
60', Doukansy B. 🟨,
61', Cisse C. ↓, Le Mehaute Y. ↑,
61', Anne S. ↓, Lavigne V. ↑,
63', Oudjani A. 🟨,
66', Farade K. ↓, Belliard M. ↑,
75', Porsan Clemente J. ↓, Zemoura Y. ↑,
78', Oudjani A. ↓, Valme R. ↑,
80', Homssa N. ↓, Thomas T. ↑,
80', Verdier Y. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
83', Khetir C. 🟨,
85', Nehari M. 🟨,
90+3', Doukansy B. 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 13th and 16th in the Relegation).

In recent outings, Fleury-Merogis has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aubagne has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Fleury-Merogis is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Fleury-Merogis has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fleury-Merogis against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Fleury 91	9	3	3	3	15:12	3	12
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Aubagne - the odds 3.12 are the expected chance of winning is 29.32%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fleury 91
French Ligue 3
19.09.26	Fleury 91 - Thionville Lusitanos	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Valenciennes - Fleury 91	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Fleury 91 - Villefranche	6:1 ✺
29.08.26	Quevilly - Fleury 91	2:1 ✺
20.08.26	Fleury 91 - Orleans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWLL
- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
19.09.26	Rouen FC - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Aubagne - Bourg-Péronnas	2:0 ✺
20.08.26	Caen - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
06.03.26	Aubagne - Fleury 91	1:2
26.09.25	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	0:2

Fleury 91 - Aubagne: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide