Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 26

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Jaanovits J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Flora Tallinn		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.30	2.20
	2.8	3.4	2.22
	2.9	3.52	2.29
	2.83	3.58	2.29	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.2
	2.77	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.75	3.45	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.57)	3.44 ↓ (3.48)	2.24 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flora Tallinn
32.7%

Draw
26.6%

Nõmme Kalju
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

26.2%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.6%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flora Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Nõmme Kalju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grunvald E. (C) 6. Veering R. 53. Sammul R. 24. Pihela O. 26. Tovstik S. 67. Antonov I. 8. Teevali T. 7. Kuraksin D. 49. Kukkonen M. 29. Alamaa S. 20. Zenjov S.	1. Perk H. (C) 46. Vukusic R. 50. Podholjuzin M. 5. Korre U. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 20. Tambedou M. 88. Sotsugov D. 26. Siht R. 10. Ivanov N. 27. Mannilaan M. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E.
Substitutes
9. Alliku R. 4. Jekimov M. 41. Kalvik K. 99. Kivila K. (G) 97. Korjus U. 52. Neltsas R. 74. Paltser E. 10. Sorga E. 17. Usta T. 55. Zotov D.	21. Baptista T. 52. Idalecio 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 22. Nikolajev A. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 7. Tarassenkov D.
Coaches
Mool K.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Kuraksin D. ⚽, Alamaa S. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Siht R. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Kuraksin D. ⚽, Zenjov S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sotsugov D. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
60', Kuraksin D. ↓, Jekimov M. ↑,
60', Zenjov S. ↓, Alliku R. ↑,
60', Sammul R. ↓, Sorga E. ↑,
71', Podholjuzin M. 🟨,
72', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Nikolajev A. ↑,
72', Lotar Eyang E. E. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
72', Alamaa S. ↓, Zotov D. ↑,
76', Tambedou M. ↓, Jekimov F. ↑,
85', Mannilaan M. ↓, Idalecio ↑,
86', Kukkonen M. ↓, Usta T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flora won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Flora may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flora won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Flora won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Flora	29	18	1	10	59:39	20	55
4	Kalju	29	15	5	9	52:27	25	50

Last Results with these Odds

Flora Tallinn - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.38%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.45%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Tammeka	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Tammeka - Flora Tallinn	3:1 ✺
23.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLWL
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
30.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn	2:3 ✺
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.08.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
10.05.26	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	0:1
15.03.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	0:1
Estonian Super Cup
28.02.26	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
28.09.25	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	3:1
06.07.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	1:0
27.04.25	Flora Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju	2:3
05.04.25	Nõmme Kalju - Flora Tallinn	1:2

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