Match Info

Estonian Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva)


	Narva Trans		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.25	2.05
	3.10	3.00	2.08
	2.89	3.35	2.09
	2.9	3.55	2.17	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.04
	3.21	3.32	2.05
	3.15	3.25	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (5.32)	3.27 ↓ (3.66)	2.07 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Narva Trans
29.9%

Draw
27.2%

Nõmme Kalju
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

25.2%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

24.7%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Narva Trans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Narva Trans's performance.

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nõmme Kalju might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Narva Trans that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nõmme Kalju could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Narva Trans will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Venteo I. (G) 4. Ivanyushin A. 16. Kondrattsev S. 5. Campagna C. 14. Filatov A. 6. Slein G. 19. Elysee (C) 48. Awusi W. 7. Velijev M. 10. Gero A. 3. Berardozzi T.	69. Pavlov M. (G) 46. Vukusic R. 50. Podholjuzin M. (C) 5. Korre U. 22. Nikolajev A. 20. Tambedou M. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 7. Tarassenkov D. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E. 10. Ivanov N.
Substitutes
8. Agaptsev S. 88. Besigirskis A. 44. Geveller D. 70. Imeh J. 23. Jegorov A. 29. Kudriashov V. 66. Petkus E. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 1. Zahharov M. (G) 22. Zuravljov E.	21. Baptista T. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 27. Mannilaan M. 1. Perk H. (G) 88. Sotsugov D. 59. Vastsuk B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Velijev M. ⚽,
29', Tarassenkov D. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
40', 2 - 0, Berardozzi T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nikolajev A. ↓, Vastsuk B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 1.

Recent performances by Narva Trans have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nõmme Kalju is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Nõmme Kalju is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Narva Trans won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:31. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Narva Trans won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Narva Trans - the odds 5.32 are the expected chance of winning is 17.31%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Nõmme Kalju - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.08.26	Levadia Tallinn - Narva Trans	4:0 ✺
16.08.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
31.07.26	Nõmme United - Narva Trans	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
22.07.26	Narva Trans - Flora U21	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTLWW
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.08.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Nõmme Kalju - Shelbourne	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
08.08.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:2
01.05.26	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:3
03.04.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:1
17.09.25	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	0:0
17.08.25	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	1:2
15.06.25	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:0
19.04.25	Narva Trans - Nõmme Kalju	1:2

Upcoming Matches