Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Flora Tallinn		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.50	2.25
	3.05	3.6	2.02
	3.16	4.01	2.05
	2.61	3.84	2.35	Watch
	3	3.95	2.02
	2.83	3.67	2.26	Watch
	2.95	3.65	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.18)	3.75 ↑ (3.72)	2.14 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flora Tallinn
32.1%

Draw
24.7%

Paide LM
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

25%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

24.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flora Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Flora Tallinn's form might have worsened.

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paide LM's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flora Tallinn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paide LM, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Flora Tallinn - Paide LM Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Flora will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paide will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grunvald E. (G) 7. Kuraksin D. 24. Pihela O. 6. Veering R. 67. Antonov I. 18. Valdmets R. 51. Kukkonen M. 9. Alliku R. (C) 52. Neltsas R. 20. Zenjov S. 29. Alamaa S.	99. Jarju E. (G) 2. Lilander M. 44. Kait K. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. 14. Jobarteh M. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 77. Luts D. 9. Anier H.
Substitutes
75. Isok K. 41. Kalvik K. 99. Kivila K. (G) 97. Korjus U. 45. Lorenz K. 66. Pihlak P. 53. Sammul R. 93. Silm J. 8. Teevali T. 17. Usta T. 55. Zotov D.	30. Badamosi A. 17. Cham P. A. 62. Darboe D. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 10. Miller M. 15. Ojamaa H. 61. Palacios J. 21. Smirnov R. 11. Sohna M. P. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Mool K.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Andrade 🟨,
45', Hoim O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 1 - 0, Alamaa S. ⚽, Zenjov S. (A),
53', Luts D. ↓, Sohna M. P. ↑,
64', Pihela O. ↓, Teevali T. ↑,
64', Ojamaa H. ↓, Badamosi A. ↑,
64', Daniel Cabral ↓, Miller M. ↑,
64', Neltsas R. ↓, Sammul R. ↑,
64', Jobarteh M. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
70', Alliku R. ↓, Zotov D. ↑,
70', Kukkonen M. ↓, Usta T. ↑,
73', Zenjov S. 🟨,
76', Badamosi A. 🟨,
76', 🟨,
83', Anier H. ↓, Darboe D. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Darboe D. ⚽, Sohna M. P. (A),
90', 1 - 2, Miller M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flora won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flora won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 29:28. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Flora won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Flora	29	18	1	10	59:39	20	55
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
26.08.26	Tammeka - Flora Tallinn	3:1 ✺
23.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Inter Escaldes	0:4 ✺
06.08.26	Inter Escaldes - Flora Tallinn	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL
- Paide LM
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	4:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
23.08.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.08.26	Rapid Wien - Paide LM	2:0 ✺
06.08.26	Paide LM - Rapid Wien	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
21.06.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2
Estonian Cup
23.05.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:5
Estonian Meistriliiga
26.04.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:2
Club Friendly
20.02.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:3
Estonian Meistriliiga
26.10.25	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:1
21.06.25	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	2:1
15.06.25	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2

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