Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Koppel K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Pärnu Vaprus		Flora Tallinn

	1	X	2
	4.00	4.20	1.60
	4.90	4.40	1.49
	4.28	4.36	1.68
	4.63	4.45	1.59	Watch
	4.20	4.15	1.66
	4.11	4.46	1.66	Watch
	4.20	4.20	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.33 ↓ (4.68)	4.32 ↑ (4.08)	1.61 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus
21.3%

Draw
21.4%

Flora Tallinn
57.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

22.5%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

21.9%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Flora Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flora Tallinn than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Nomm O. (C) 15. Aloe K. 17. Kapper S. 11. Kauber K. 42. Limberg M. 28. Lipp M. 66. Nomm U. 8. Pajo T. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S.	33. Grunvald E. (G) 29. Alamaa S. 9. Alliku R. (C) 23. Kolobov M. 51. Kukkonen M. 7. Kuraksin D. 24. Pihela O. 26. Tovstik S. 17. Usta T. 18. Valdmets R. 14. Varjund T.
Substitutes
5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 19. Korre A. 14. Orm R. 9. Poder J. 3. Rand K. 43. Seppik M. 26. Vahemets O. 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 24. Villota M.	99. Kivila K. (G) 3. Kollo A. 97. Korjus U. 45. Lorenz K. 52. Neltsas R. 74. Paltser E. 66. Pihlak P. 53. Sammul R. 22. Tatrik A. (G) 6. Veering R. 55. Zotov D.
Coaches
Prins I.	Mool K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', 0 - 1, Kukkonen M. ⚽, Alamaa S. (A),
36', 0 - 2, Pihela O. ⚽, Kukkonen M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kauber K. ↓, Villota M. ↑,
61', Tovstik S. ↓, Veering R. ↑,
62', Valdmets R. 🟨,
68', Nomm U. ↓, Seppik M. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Viidas S. ⚽,
71', Alamaa S. ↓, Zotov D. ↑,
84', Sild J. 🟨,
86', Kukkonen M. ↓, Lorenz K. ↑,
86', Usta T. ↓, Paltser E. ↑,
90', Valja H. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 0.

Recent form of Pärnu Vaprus has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Flora's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pärnu Vaprus may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Flora is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 11:53. (average 0.6:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 6:30. (average 0.6:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Flora	29	18	1	10	59:39	20	55
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34

Last Results with these Odds

Flora Tallinn - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 57.92%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
16.08.26	Nõmme Kalju - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
02.08.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Narva Trans - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
11.07.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Tammeka	5:1 ✺
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LTLWL
- Flora Tallinn
Estonian Meistriliiga
16.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Kuressaare	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Inter Escaldes	0:4 ✺
06.08.26	Inter Escaldes - Flora Tallinn	2:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Harju JK Laagri	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	The New Saints - Flora Tallinn	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
16.06.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	1:2
12.04.26	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0
Club Friendly
17.01.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	2:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
08.11.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	0:3
13.09.25	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	3:0
02.05.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Flora Tallinn	0:3
08.03.25	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	0:1

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