Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports


	Floresta		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	2.6	2.85
	2.48	2.58	3.1	Watch
	2.57	2.69	3.45
	2.67	2.47	3.44	Watch
	2.5	2.4	3.25
	2.51	2.49	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.07)	2.54 ↓ (2.88)	3.25 ↓ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
35.8%

Draw
36%

Confiança
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

31.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

31%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Floresta's form might have worsened.

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Floresta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Floresta - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dheimison (C) 3. Afonso 31. Buga 29. Caique 13. Garraty 9. Jeam 5. Jhony Douglas 4. Joao Victor 21. Matheus Martins 17. Nonato 14. Valdo	1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 21. Breiner C. 8. Gabriel Zeca 11. Iago Silva 4. Icaro (C) 9. Joao Pedro 6. Kelvyn 3. Lucas Cunha 2. Mateus Ludke 10. PK 13. Renilson
Substitutes
19. Daniel 8. Danrley 6. Diego Matos 25. Diogo Mourao 30. Eduardo 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 18. Joao Celeri 27. Marco Antonio 10. Matheusinho 11. Rafinha 22. Tiepo (G)	7. Danielzinho 14. Eduardo Moura 16. Enzo Rocha 5. Gustavo Nicola 19. Maikon Aquino 12. Matheus Silva (G) 15. Paulo Henrique 99. Sassa 22. Valdir Junior
Coaches
Leston Junior	Thiago Gomes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Jhony Douglas ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', PK ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
61', Joao Pedro ↓, Maikon Aquino ↑,
61', Renilson ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
62', Valdo ↓, Eduardo ↑,
68', Mateus Ludke ↓, Valdir Junior ↑,
72', Buga 🟨,
72', Nonato ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
72', Buga ↓, Danrley ↑,
76', Breiner C. ↓, Sassa ↑,
80', Jeam ↓, Daniel ↑,
80', Caique ↓, Diego Matos ↑,
90+6', Gustavo Nicola 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 17).

In recent matches, Floresta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Confiança's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Confiança has had a series of home games.

Floresta might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Floresta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
25.05.26	Paysandu - Floresta	2:1 ✺
16.05.26	Floresta - Amazonas	3:2 ✺
09.05.26	Itabaiana - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Floresta - Maranhão	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LWTLW
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
24.05.26	Confiança - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
18.05.26	Confiança - Maranhão	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Confiança - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Ituano - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.05.26	Confiança - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
17.08.25	Confiança - Floresta	1:0
10.06.24	Floresta - Confiança	1:0
07.08.23	Confiança - Floresta	3:1
10.04.22	Floresta - Confiança	1:0

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