Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 6

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)


	Ituano		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.1	4.35	Watch
	1.84	3.23	4.72
	1.8	3.32	4.73	Watch
	1.8	2.9	4.4
	1.78	3.1	4.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 (1.8)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	4.56 ↓ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
50.8%

Draw
29.2%

Confiança
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

28.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

23.6%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Ituano - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wesley Borges (G) 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 10. Guilherme Xavier 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 4. Matheus Mancini 11. Neto Berola 8. Richard 7. Thassio 6. Tiaguinho	1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 4. Eduardo Moura 8. Gustavo Nicola 11. Iago Silva 3. Icaro 5. Joao Mandovani 9. Joao Pedro 6. Kelvyn 10. PK 13. Renilson 2. Weriton
Substitutes
17. Alason Carioca 20. Bruno Alves 19. Bruno Mezenga 14. Carlao 16. Guilherme Dal Pian 23. Leo Passos 21. Leo Souza 22. Lucas Stefanello 15. Martha 18. Nelsinho 12. Saulo (G) 13. Victor Reis	21. Andrey Quintino 7. Danielzinho 17. Fabricio 16. Lorran 19. Maikon Aquino 14. Matheus Juliao 12. Matheus Silva (G) 15. PH 20. Valdir Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Joao Mandovani 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Neto Berola ⚽,
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Eduardo Moura ↓, PH ↑,
60', PK 🟨,
68', Weriton ↓, Fabricio ↑,
68', Joao Mandovani ↓, Valdir Junior ↑,
72', Matheus Mancini 🟨,
76', Gabriel Razera ↓, Guilherme Dal Pian ↑,
76', Richard ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
76', Tiaguinho ↓, Martha ↑,
82', Joao Pedro ↓, Maikon Aquino ↑,
82', Iago Silva ↓, Andrey Quintino ↑,
86', Guilherme Xavier ↓, Lucas Stefanello ↑,
86', Neto Berola ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
90+1', Icaro 🟨,
90+5', Martha 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18).

Ituano has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Confiança is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Confiança may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ituano is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ituano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Ituano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
05.05.26	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Internacional de Limeira - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWLT
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.05.26	Confiança - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
02.05.26	Confiança - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Brusque - Confiança	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
09.08.25	Ituano - Confiança	1:2

Ituano - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide