Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)

Referee: Mourao P. (Bra)


	Confiança		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4	2.9	2.05	Watch
	3.6	2.95	2.05
	3.75	2.92	2	Watch
	3.64	2.97	2.09
	7.89	3.91	1.44	Watch
	3.5	2.9	2.05
	3.67	2.89	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.29 ↑ (3.94)	3.06 ↑ (2.86)	1.96 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
21.8%

Draw
30.6%

Fortaleza
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

31.9%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

31.1%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Confiança - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 2. Valdir Junior 3. Icaro (C) 4. Lucas Cunha 6. Marcelo Nunes 8. Paulo Henrique 13. Renilson 7. Weriton 10. PK 9. Joao Pedro 11. Iago Silva	25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 3. Lucas Gazal 4. Luan Freitas 8. Ronald 75. Rodriguinho 29. Rodrigo 31. Welliton 88. Lucas Sasha (C) 11. Vitinho 9. Miritello J. B. 32. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
21. Andrey Quintino 20. Danielzinho 14. Eduardo Moura 17. Fabricio 18. Gustavo Nicola 15. Joao Mandovani 5. Lorran 19. Maikon Aquino 22. Mateus Ludke 16. Matheus Juliao 12. Matheus Silva (G) 99. Sassa	12. Brenno (G) 2. Britez E. 33. Kaua Rocha 99. Kayke 38. Lucca Prior 22. Mailton 20. Matheus Rossetto 13. Mauricio Junior 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 37. Ryan
Coaches
Cacapa C.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
38', Lucas Sasha 🟨,
42', 0 - 2, Miritello J. B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marcelo Nunes ↓, Eduardo Moura ↑,
46', Weriton ↓, Matheus Juliao ↑,
46', Paulo Henrique ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
65', Vitinho ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
65', Welliton ↓, Mailton ↑,
65', Miritello J. B. ↓, Kayke ↑,
73', Eduardo Moura 🟨,
74', Lucas Gazal 🟨,
76', PK ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
78', Luiz Fernando ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
78', Rodrigo ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
82', Luan Freitas 🟨,
87', Valdir Junior ↓, Andrey Quintino ↑,
89', 1 - 2, Icaro (Penalty Awarded),
89', Kayke 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 2.

Recent form of Confiança has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fortaleza is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of home games.

Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 44.93%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
02.05.26	Confiança - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Brusque - Confiança	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Grêmio - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
18.04.26	Confiança - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLLW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.26	Fortaleza - Goiás	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Fortaleza - Criciúma	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.04.21	Confiança - Fortaleza	0:1
22.02.20	Confiança - Fortaleza	2:0
07.03.19	Fortaleza - Confiança	4:0
Brazilian Serie C
03.09.17	Confiança - Fortaleza	2:0
02.07.17	Fortaleza - Confiança	1:1
31.07.16	Fortaleza - Confiança	2:2
29.05.16	Confiança - Fortaleza	0:2

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