Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Santa Cruz Recife		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.98	3.00	3.60
	2.28	2.72	3.15	Watch
	2.08	3.05	3.89
	2.11	3.02	3.77
	2.08	2.9	3.7
	2.15	3.02	3.67	Watch
	2.02	2.9	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.31)	2.94 ↓ (3)	3.63 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
43.6%

Draw
31.1%

Caxias
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

30%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

30.4%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caxias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santa Cruz Recife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caxias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Santa Cruz Recife - Caxias Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Caxias (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Caxias (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Caxias (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Caxias (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 28. Eron 3. Eurico 37. Everaldo 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 19. Renato 17. Ronald 26. Silva 18. Vitinho 4. William Alves (C)	1. Busatto G. (G) 5. Breno Santos 7. Dentinho 2. Felipe Albuquerque 3. Ianson 11. Jhonatan Ribeiro 4. Mancha 10. Marcelo Freitas (C) 8. Matheus Nunes 9. Quirino 6. Roberto
Substitutes
6. Alex Ruan 9. Alex Sandro 29. Arilson 10. Cassiano 27. Edson Miranda 7. Fabinho 22. Jhoninha 20. Patrick Allan 12. Rokenedy (G) 2. Thiago Ennes 23. Tiago Marques 31. Ze Mario	17. Andre 18. Calyson 19. Gaspar 15. Grigor 21. Joao Lucas 12. Marcelo (G) 20. Matheus Anjos 14. Mauricio Ribeiro 16. Victor Sa 22. Vitor Feijao 13. Windson
Coaches
Cristian Souza	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Breno Santos 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Eron ⚽,
45', William Alves 🟨,
45+1', Breno Santos 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', William Alves ↓, Edson Miranda ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Matheus Vinicius ⚽,
61', Dentinho ↓, Gaspar ↑,
68', Marcelo Freitas ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
70', Pedro Favela 🟨,
73', Pedro Favela ↓, Arilson ↑,
78', Everaldo ↓, Patrick Allan ↑,
80', Renato ↓, Cassiano ↑,
80', Ronald ↓, Thiago Ennes ↑,
82', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
82', Jhonatan Ribeiro ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,
82', Quirino ↓, Calyson ↑,
90+4', Calyson 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Santa Cruz is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91%

Last Results with these Odds

Caxias - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.15%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
15.08.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
08.08.26	Botafogo PB - Santa Cruz Recife	2:2 ✺
25.07.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Figueirense	0:1 ✺
12.07.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
04.07.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LTLWW
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
16.08.26	Caxias - Figueirense	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Itabaiana - Caxias	0:2 ✺
26.07.26	Caxias - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Caxias - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Ferroviária - Caxias	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLTW

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