Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Fanatiz
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3	3.7
	2.25	2.92	3.5
	2.35	3.04	3.68
	2.3	3	3.3
	2.29	3.06	3.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.55)	3 ↓ (3.15)	3.58 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
41.8%

Draw
31.6%

Cruzeiro
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.8%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

29.4%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	12.1%	6.1%

Fluminense - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 53 - 81.5%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 4 - 6.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 72.1% – 90.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Fluminense (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fluminense (1.30) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Fluminense (1.55) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 44 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 35 - 79.5%). Cruzeiro (votes: 4 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 12. Fuentes G. 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 7. Soteldo Y. 16. Nonato 21. Arias J. 14. Cano G.	1. Cassio (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 36. Kaua Prates 29. Romero L. 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 94. Wanderson 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 17. Canobbio A. 9. Everaldo 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 11. Keno 45. Lima 26. Manoel 6. Rene 90. Serna K. 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	11. Bolasie Y. 26. Diaz L. 21. Eduardo 9. Gabriel Barbosa 14. Gamarra M. 77. Japa 34. Jonathan Jesus 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 7. Marquinhos 5. Walace 12. William Furtado
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Fabricio Bruno ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
35', 0 - 2, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nonato ↓, Serna K. ↑,
59', Martinelli 🟨,
63', Kaua Prates ↓, William Furtado ↑,
66', Soteldo Y. ↓, Keno ↑,
66', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
67', Cassio 🟨,
75', Fuentes G. ↓, Rene ↑,
76', Martinelli ↓, Lima ↑,
79', Matheus Pereira ↓, Eduardo ↑,
79', Wanderson ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
86', Marquinhos 🟨,
88', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
89', Christian ↓, Jonathan Jesus ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 4.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cruzeiro has had a series of home games.

Fluminense might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Janderson (Knee Injury) Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Kaiki (Yellow Cards) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Riquelme Felipe (Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: William Furtado (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
FIFA Club World Cup
08.07.25	Fluminense - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
04.07.25	Fluminense - Al-Hilal	2:1 ✺
30.06.25	Inter Milan - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
25.06.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Fluminense - Ulsan HD	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWWTW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.25	Cruzeiro - Banfield	1:0 ✺
03.07.25	Cruzeiro - Defensa y Justicia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.25	Vitória Salvador - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.10.24	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	1:0
19.06.24	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	2:0
20.09.23	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	1:0
10.05.23	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	0:2
Copa do Brasil
12.07.22	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	0:3
23.06.22	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
09.10.19	Cruzeiro - Fluminense	0:0

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