Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cruzeiro		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.75	5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.74	3.83	5.46
	1.68	3.87	5.13	Watch
	1.67	3.5	4.8
	1.74	3.75	4.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.71)	3.73 ↑ (3.48)	5.06 ↑ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
55.9%

Draw
25.4%

Grêmio
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26.5%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

26.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	0%	18.2%

Cruzeiro - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Cunha (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 11. Gerson 29. Romero L. (C) 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 88. Christian 19. Kaio Jorge	1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 6. Gustavo Martins 3. Wagner Leonardo 54. Pedro Gabriel 5. Nardoni J. 19. Noriega E. 8. Arthur Melo (C) 99. Enamorado J. 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
9. Bruno Rodrigues 91. Chico 43. Joao Marcelo 2. Kaua Moraes 36. Kaua Prates 16. Lucas Silva 8. Matheus Henrique 81. Otavio Costa (G) 17. Sinisterra L. 25. Villalba L. 22. Villarreal N. 94. Wanderson	22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 43. Luis Eduardo 14. Marcos Rocha 11. Monsalve M. 33. Perez L. 21. Tete 39. Tiago
Coaches
Artur Jorge	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Fabricio Bruno 🟨,
44', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
44', Villalba L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kaio Jorge ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Christian ⚽, Gerson (A),
57', Nardoni J. ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
61', Noriega E. 🟨,
61', Gerson ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Romero L. ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
68', Matheus Pereira ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
71', Noriega E. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
71', Enamorado J. ↓, Tete ↑,
71', Amuzu F. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
75', Christian ↓, Wanderson ↑,
75', Romero L. ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
77', Gustavo Martins 🟨,
84', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
85', Perez L. 🟨,
90+1', Lucas Silva 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruzeiro is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Kaio Jorge (Inactive) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Sinisterra L. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Marlon (Broken ankle) Viery (Red Card) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Willian (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.5:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 4.68 are the expected chance of winning is 19.69%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Cruzeiro - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Cruzeiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	4:1 ✺
01.04.26	Cruzeiro - Vitória Salvador	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWWLW
- Grêmio RS
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Grêmio - Remo	0:0 ✺
02.04.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:1
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1
27.11.24	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	1:1
10.07.24	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:2
27.08.23	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	3:0
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	0:1
17.05.23	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	1:1

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