Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cruzeiro		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3	2.88	2.7	Watch
	2.95	2.95	2.6
	3.3	2.85	2.45	Watch
	3.48	2.98	2.47
	3.39	2.89	2.45	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.4
	3.3	3	2.43	Watch
	3.25	2.9	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)	2.92 ↓ (3.26)	2.49 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
29.5%

Draw
32.5%

Palmeiras
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

29%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

29.2%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	53.8%	30.8%

Cruzeiro - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Cruzeiro (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cruzeiro (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. 16. Lucas Silva (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 94. Wanderson 19. Kaio Jorge	21. Weverton (G) 4. Giay A. 3. Bruno Fuchs 13. Micael 22. Piquerez J. 32. Martinez E. 8. Rios R. 23. Raphael Veiga (C) 18. Mauricio 41. Estevao 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 99. Dinenno J. 21. Eduardo 23. Fagner 9. Gabriel Barbosa 14. Gamarra M. 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 7. Marquinhos 35. Murilo Rhikman 5. Walace	40. Allan 7. Felipe Anderson 30. Lucas Evangelista 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 12. Mayke 5. Moreno A. 34. Naves 10. Paulinho 17. Torres F. 6. Vanderlan 9. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Jardim L.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Kaiki (A),
4', 2 - 0, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Jonathan Jesus (A),
13', Rios R. 🟨,
43', Kaiki 🟨,
45', Jardim L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Flaco Lopez ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
46', Raphael Veiga ↓, Paulinho ↑,
48', Christian 🟨,
63', Rios R. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
63', Martinez E. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
64', Wanderson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
68', Estevao 🟨,
74', Kaio Jorge ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
75', Mauricio ↓, Allan ↑,
85', Vitor Roque 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Allan ⚽, Lucas Evangelista (A),
89', Matheus Pereira ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
90+1', Eduardo 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 0.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury) Villalba L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Felipe Anderson (Hamstring Injury) Gomez G. (Yellow Cards) Murilo (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Japa (Thigh Injury) Wanderson (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Palmeiras - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Copa Sudamericana
28.05.25	Cruzeiro - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cruzeiro - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWTW
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	Palmeiras - Bolívar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.12.24	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	1:2
20.07.24	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	2:0
06.12.23	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	1:1
14.08.23	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	1:0
08.12.19	Cruzeiro - Palmeiras	0:2
14.09.19	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	1:0
30.09.18	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	3:1

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