The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Athletico Paranaense 40.3%
Draw 30.6%
Fluminense 29.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.1%
29.9%
28.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.5%
28.9%
27.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
75%
25%
0%
Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%). Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 45% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 25. Dantas 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 29. Benavidez G. 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo 7. Mendoza S. 21. Leozinho 8. Joao Cruz 9. Viveros K.
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 29. Millan J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 10. PH Ganso (C) 30. Soteldo Y. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 3. Leo 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 22. Teran C. 10. Zapelli B.
32. Acosta L. 14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 13. Guilherme Arana 44. Jemmes 46. Julio Fidelis 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 11. Savarino J. 90. Serna K. 3. Thiago Silva
Coaches
Hellmann O.
Marcao
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
35', 1 - 0, Leozinho ⚽, Mendoza S. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
45+5', PH Ganso 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', 2 - 1, Benavidez G. ⚽,
49', Benavidez G. 🟨,
59', Soteldo Y. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
60', PH Ganso ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Canobbio A. ⚽,
71', Leozinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
72', Joao Cruz ↓, Calderon Vargas K. A. ↑,
76', Nonato 🟨,
78', 2 - 3, Ignacio ⚽, Hulk (A),
80', Viveros K. 🟨,
82', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
83', Aguirre F. ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
90+1', Canobbio A. ↓, Savarino J. ↑,
90+1', Hulk ↓, Jemmes ↑,
90+5', 3 - 3, Viveros K. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 0.
At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Athletico PR will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Athletico PR: Claudinho
(Muscle Injury)
Esquivel L.
(Ankle Injury)
Gilberto
(Ankle Injury)
Leo Derik
(Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Fluminense: Hercules
(Yellow Cards)
Igor Rabello
(Inactive)
John Kennedy
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Reis
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Fluminense: Samuel Xavier
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 1.5:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Fluminense
29
14
9
6
48:36
12
51
4
Athletico-PR
29
14
8
7
45:34
11
50
Last Results with these Odds
Fluminense - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 28.05%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.
Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina
Brazil
Germany
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Usa
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Santos (C) 
Aguirre F. 
Benavidez G. 
Canobbio A. 
Soteldo Y. 
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