Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 20

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.8
	1.7	3.55	4.95
	1.73	3.64	5.57
	1.83	3.3	4.6
	1.73	3.7	5.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.83)	3.55 ↑ (3.3)	5.06 ↑ (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
54.5%

Draw
26.8%

Fortaleza
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

28.5%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

28%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	12.5%	4.2%

Fluminense - Fortaleza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fluminense (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 40. Davi Schuindt 26. Manoel 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 8. Martinelli 10. PH Ganso (C) 90. Serna K. 14. Cano G. 11. Keno	23. Leite H. (G) 2. Tinga (C) 33. Britez E. 3. Avila G. 36. Weverson 88. Lucas Sasha 20. Matheus Rossetto 77. Andrade K. 22. Yago Pikachu 9. Lucero J. 80. Herrera J.
Substitutes
32. Acosta L. 17. Canobbio A. 9. Everaldo 23. Guga 35. Hercules 99. John Kennedy 46. Julio Fidelis 18. Lezcano R. 45. Lima 28. Riquelme Felipe 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	19. Allanzinho 27. Bareiro A. 26. Breno Lopes 6. Bruno Pacheco 18. Deyverson 16. Diogo Barbosa 8. Emmanuel Martinez 28. Guilherme C. d. S. 38. Lucca Prior 14. Mancuso E. 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 17. Ze Welison
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Alves R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Cano G. ⚽, Serna K. (A),
24', Keno ↓, Canobbio A. ↑,
43', Andrade K. 🟨,
45+2', Britez E. 🟨,
45+4', Breno Lopes 🟨,
45+5', Martinelli 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Andrade K. ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
55', Bernal F. 🟨,
57', Lucero J. 🟨,
63', Herrera J. ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
63', Lucero J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Serna K. (A),
67', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
73', Yago Pikachu ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Allanzinho (A),
80', PH Ganso ↓, Lima ↑,
80', Cano G. ↓, Everaldo ↑,
86', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.

Fluminense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fortaleza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fluminense is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Freytes J. (Red Card) Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Ignacio (Knee Injury) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury) Thiago Silva (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Brenno (Finger Injury) Gustavo Mancha (Red Card) Joao Ricardo (Finger Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pochettino T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Soteldo Y. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pereira M. (Inactive)

We predict that Fluminense will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.25	América de Cali - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Fluminense - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.08.25	Fluminense - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Internacional RS - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WTTWW
- Fortaleza EC
Copa Libertadores
12.08.25	Fortaleza - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
03.08.25	Corinthians - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
29.07.25	Grêmio - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	Fortaleza - Fluminense	2:0
22.11.24	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:2
07.07.24	Fortaleza - Fluminense	1:0
03.09.23	Fluminense - Fortaleza	1:0
29.04.23	Fortaleza - Fluminense	4:2
10.09.22	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:1
Copa do Brasil
17.08.22	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:2

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