Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - PLAY OFFS - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 24 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Fluminense		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	8	Watch
	1.49	4	6.75
	1.5	4	7.5
	1.52	3.93	7.94
	1.36	4.2	6.5
	1.54	4	6.3	Watch
	1.48	4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.39)	4.07 ↓ (4.43)	7.11 ↓ (7.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
63.7%

Draw
23.1%

Olimpia Asuncion
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

21.1%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.2%

20.4%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	20%	6.7%

Fluminense - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Olimpia will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 33. Nino (C) 30. Felipe Melo 40. Diogo Barbosa 7. Andre 21. Jhon Arias 10. Ganso 11. Keno 14. Cano G. 9. John Kennedy	12. Espinola J. (G) 3. Silva A. 23. Romana J. 15. Gamarra M. 36. Zabala F. 14. Cardozo F. 27. Ramon Martinez 6. Ortiz R. (C) 11. Torres I. 19. Gonzalez W. 7. Fernandez H.
Substitutes
5. Alexsander 20. Danielzinho 44. David Braz 19. Fernandez L. 38. Gonzalez Y. 23. Guga 99. Lele 45. Lima 4. Marlon 8. Martinelli L. M. 22. Pedro Rangel (G) 29. Thiago Santos	26. Barreto Viera O. J. 9. Bruera F. 40. Frutos R. (G) 17. Gomez M. 10. Gonzalez D. 20. Otalvaro S. 16. Paiva G. 8. Quintana H. 18. Quintana S. 29. Salazar V. 5. Salcedo S. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Diniz F.	Arce F.

Preview

1st leg.

Fluminense is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Olimpia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fluminense is indisputable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
19.08.23	Fluminense - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
13.08.23	Grêmio - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.08.23	Fluminense - Argentinos Juniors	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.08.23	Fluminense - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.08.23	Argentinos Juniors - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWWT
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.08.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaireña	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.08.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Flamengo	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.08.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	5:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.08.23	Flamengo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.03.22	Olimpia Asuncion - Fluminense	3:0 penalties
09.03.22	Fluminense - Olimpia Asuncion	3:1
29.05.13	Olimpia Asuncion - Fluminense	2:1
22.05.13	Fluminense - Olimpia Asuncion	0:0

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