The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Grêmio 27.2%
Draw 29.1%
Fluminense 43.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
36.3%
28.5%
35.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.1%
29.2%
34.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.
Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fluminense's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+9.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fluminense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
50%
50%
Grêmio - Fluminense Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%). Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 19% – 81%.
12. Gabriel Grando (G) 7. Pavon C. 6. Gustavo Martins 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 5. Nardoni J. 20. Villasanti M. 19. Noriega E. 21. Tete 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
22. Braithwaite M. 77. Cabral J. 27. Diego Caito 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 37. Gabriel Mec 43. Luis Eduardo 30. Matheus Nascimento 54. Pedro Gabriel 65. Riquelme 24. Thiago Beltrame (G) 3. Wagner Leonardo
14. Cano G. 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 46. Julio Fidelis 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 16. Nonato 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 2. Samuel Xavier 30. Soteldo Y.
Coaches
Castro L.
Zubeldia L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Hercules 🟨,
13', Guga 🟨,
21', Guilherme Arana ↓, Rene ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Hulk (Penalty Awarded),
69', Thiago Silva 🟨,
69', Pavon C. ↓, Diego Caito ↑,
69', Noriega E. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
75', Hulk ↓, Cano G. ↑,
75', Acosta L. ↓, Nonato ↑,
76', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
78', Amuzu F. ↓, Cabral J. ↑,
78', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
79', Canobbio A. 🟨,
80', Marlon ↓, Pedro Gabriel ↑,
87', Serna K. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
87', Hercules ↓, Ignacio ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Diego Caito ⚽, Cabral J. (A),
90+2', Nardoni J. 🟨,
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 0.
Grêmio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Fluminense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Grêmio: Marlon
(Broken ankle)
Perez L.
(Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Fluminense: John Kennedy
(Red Card)
Matheus Reis
(Knee Injury)
Vitor Eudes
(Inactive)
There are questionable in Fluminense: Millan J.
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).
Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now
Fluminense: 0.71%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Fluminense
29
14
9
6
48:36
12
51
18
Gremio
29
7
9
13
31:39
-8
30
Last Results with these Odds
Fluminense - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.21%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Ecuador
Germany
Israel
North-central-america
Paraguay
United-kingdom
Uruguay
Usa
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Gabriel Grando (G) 
Pavon C. 
Villasanti M. 
Noriega E. 
Amuzu F. 
Canobbio A. 
Serna K. 
Braithwaite M. 
Cabral J. 
Soteldo Y. 
Castro L. 
