Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 10 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV3


	Olimpia Asuncion		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.5	1.85	Watch
	4	3.4	1.88
	4.4	3.6	1.82
	4.26	3.65	1.9
	4	3.25	1.75
	4.15	3.58	1.86	Watch
	4	3.4	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↑ (3.93)	3.48 ↑ (3.3)	1.85 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpia Asuncion
22.5%

Draw
26.9%

Flamengo
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

28.3%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

27.7%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Olimpia Asuncion - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Olimpia will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Flamengo will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Espinola J. (G) 3. Silva A. 23. Romana J. 15. Gamarra M. 36. Zabala F. 14. Cardozo F. 17. Gomez M. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 11. Torres I. 19. Gonzalez W. 7. Fernandez H.	25. Matheus Cunha (G) 43. Wesley 15. Fabricio Bruno 23. David Luiz 16. Filipe Luis 7. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Thiago Maia 20. Gerson 14. de Arrascaeta G. 10. Gabriel 27. Bruno Henrique
Substitutes
26. Barreto Viera O. J. 9. Bruera F. 42. Cano Esteche A. B. 40. Frutos R. (G) 24. Montenegro B. 16. Paiva G. 8. Quintana H. 18. Quintana S. 27. Ramon Martinez 29. Salazar V. 35. Torres D. 2. Zarate L.	32. Allan 6. Ayrton Lucas 11. Everton 4. Leo Pereira 31. Luiz Araujo 30. Pablo 9. Pedro 3. Rodrigo Caio 45. Rossi A. (G) 1. Santos (G) 2. Varela G. 29. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Arce F.	Sampaoli J.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

Olimpia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Flamengo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Flamengo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Olimpia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Olimpia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.08.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	5:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.08.23	Flamengo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.07.23	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
23.07.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
19.07.23	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLTLL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
06.08.23	Cuiabá - Flamengo	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.08.23	Flamengo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.07.23	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.07.23	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.07.23	Flamengo - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.08.23	Flamengo - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0
18.08.21	Flamengo - Olimpia Asuncion	5:1
11.08.21	Olimpia Asuncion - Flamengo	1:4
28.03.12	Olimpia Asuncion - Flamengo	N/A

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