Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Portugal	Sport TV4
South-america	DGO Latin America
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Fluminense		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.47	4.2	6.5
	1.38	4.75	7.5	Watch
	1.39	4.66	7.93
	1.41	4.69	7.81
	1.44	4	6.5	Watch
	1.4	4.77	7.85	Watch
	1.38	4.75	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.58)	4.57 ↑ (3.99)	7.39 ↑ (5.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
66.7%

Draw
20.6%

Once Caldas
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

23.4%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

22.5%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Once Caldas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	25%	16.7%

Fluminense - Once Caldas Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Once Caldas will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 3 - 50%). Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Fluminense (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 12. Fuentes G. 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 21. Arias J. 10. PH Ganso 90. Serna K. 9. Everaldo	12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 34. Cardona J. 18. Riquett J. 33. Patino J. 19. Garcia M. 5. Rojas I. 28. Zuleta M. 20. Garcia Castillo A. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D. (C)
Substitutes
4. Ignacio 37. Isaque Silva 46. Julio Fidelis 18. Lezcano R. 45. Lima 26. Manoel 16. Nonato 77. Paulo Baya 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	9. Alvarez G. 31. Arteaga M. 8. Beltran E. 15. Castano J. 16. Contreras J. 6. Diaz J. 30. Dorrego H. 2. Garcia J. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Martinelli ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Serna K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barrios M. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
46', Rojas I. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
46', Zuleta M. ↓, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↑,
46', Martinelli ↓, Nonato ↑,
65', Moreno D. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
71', Serna K. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
71', Everaldo ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
78', PH Ganso ↓, Lima ↑,
78', Thiago Silva ↓, Ignacio ↑,
84', Garcia Castillo A. ↓, Arteaga M. ↑,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fluminense is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fluminense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Aparecidense - Fluminense	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Juventude - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Fluminense - Unión Española	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWTWL
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Cali	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.25	Once Caldas - GVCD San José	2:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
11.05.25	Once Caldas - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Once Caldas - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Once Caldas - Fluminense	0:1

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