Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 9

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Juventude		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.7	3.25	2.05
	3.75	3.3	2.05	Watch
	4.17	3.34	2.02
	3.77	3.19	2.12
	3.3	3.2	2.2
	3.92	3.51	2.02	Watch
	3.75	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.46)	3.31 ↑ (3.23)	2.06 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
25.2%

Draw
28.7%

Fluminense
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.2%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juventude's form might have worsened.

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fluminense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juventude, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-14.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fluminense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Juventude - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Juventude (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Fluminense (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 93. Reginaldo 4. Angel W. 47. Marcos Paulo 28. Alan Ruschel (C) 95. Caique Goncalves 16. Jadson 44. Mandaca 27. Batalla E. 9. Gilberto 19. Gabriel Taliari	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 12. Fuentes G. 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 16. Nonato 21. Arias J. 9. Everaldo 90. Serna K.
Substitutes
23. Abner 2. Ewerthon 70. Gabriel Souza 11. Giovanny 8. Giraldo D. 20. Jean Carlos 12. Marcao (G) 99. Marlon 17. Matheus Babi 46. Nata 10. Nene 34. Rodrigo Sam	23. Guga 4. Ignacio 37. Isaque Silva 19. Lavega J. 18. Lezcano R. 77. Paulo Baya 7. Renato Augusto 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 29. Thiago Santos 98. Vitor Eudes (G) 55. Wallace Davi
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Nonato 🟨,
35', Angel W. 🟨,
45+5', Reginaldo 🟨,
45+5', Fuentes G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 0, Batalla E. ⚽,
58', Gilberto 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Hercules ⚽,
61', Gilberto ↓, Nene ↑,
61', Reginaldo ↓, Ewerthon ↑,
65', Alan Ruschel 🟨,
69', Serna K. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
69', Nonato ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
77', Everaldo ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
77', Mandaca ↓, Giovanny ↑,
80', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
88', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Matheus Babi ↑,
88', Caique Goncalves ↓, Rodrigo Sam ↑,
90', Samuel Xavier ↓, Ignacio ↑,
90', Martinelli ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 2.

Juventude has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fluminense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Juventude may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fluminense might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Juventude: Nene (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Cano G. (Injury) Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Juventude: Cipriano (Hamstring Injury) Matheus Babi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Riquelme Felipe (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0 ✺
05.05.25	Juventude - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Internacional RS - Juventude	3:1 ✺
20.04.25	Juventude - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
16.04.25	Flamengo - Juventude	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- Fluminense RJ
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Fluminense - Unión Española	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.25	GVCD San José - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Fluminense - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Fluminense - Aparecidense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Juventude - Fluminense	2:1
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Fluminense - Juventude	2:2
01.08.24	Juventude - Fluminense	3:2
Brazilian Serie A
01.06.24	Fluminense - Juventude	1:1
28.09.22	Fluminense - Juventude	4:0
05.06.22	Juventude - Fluminense	1:0
17.11.21	Juventude - Fluminense	1:0

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