Match Info

Carioca U20 - Taca Guanabara - Round 9

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Fluminense U20		Maricá U20

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.43	6.94
	1.39	4.77	6.25	Watch
	1.33	4.4	8.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.78)	4.53 ↑ (3.6)	7.16 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense U20
67.2%

Draw
20.1%

Maricá U20
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.5%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

24.8%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense U20's performance.

Maricá U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maricá U20 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense U20 than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense U20 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá U20 than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Maricá U20 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fluminense U20 - Maricá U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
71', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+7', 🟥,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Recent performances by Fluminense U20 have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Maricá U20 is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fluminense U20 is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
21.09.25	Portuguesa RJ U20 - Fluminense U20	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fluminense U20 - Volta Redonda U20	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Madureira U20 - Fluminense U20	0:3 ✺
30.08.25	Fluminense U20 - Flamengo RJ U20	0:4 ✺
23.08.25	Boavista SC U20 - Fluminense U20	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLWLW
- Maricá U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
20.09.25	Maricá U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	4:1 ✺
13.09.25	Bangu U20 - Maricá U20	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Maricá U20	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Maricá U20 - Portuguesa RJ U20	0:4 ✺
23.08.25	Volta Redonda U20 - Maricá U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLTLL

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