Match Info

Canadian Premier League

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tim Hortons Field (Hamilton, ON) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Canada	16:00	CBC, OneSoccer


	Forge		HFX Wanderers

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.20	5.75
	1.50	4.00	6.00
	1.46	4.50	6.79
	1.51	4.31	5.8	Watch
	1.39	4.45	6.70
	1.46	4.33	6.44	Watch
	1.43	4.30	5.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.43)	4.3 ↑ (4.22)	6.18 ↑ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forge
63.6%

Draw
21.5%

HFX Wanderers
14.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.7%

21.6%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

20.5%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

HFX Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forge than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HFX Wanderers than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Forge - HFX Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Bontis D. (G) 24. Rama R. 5. Nimick D. 55. James M. 6. Paton B. 19. Borges T. (C) 8. Batisse A. 23. Aromatario A. 87. Bourgeois M. 90. Cavallini L. 26. Sadek A.	1. Carducci M. (C) 21. Alphonse J. 26. Meilleur-Gigeuere T. 2. Linder F. 16. Sow K. 6. Callegari L. 5. Olguin L. 22. Zitman S. 23. Arilla M. 14. Bahamboula J. 11. Reid A.
Substitutes
33. Grant C. (G) 22. Jensen N. 3. Jevremovic M. 14. Johnson L. 4. Krutzen D. 17. Massunda H. 7. Oketokoun I.	12. Astridge S. (G) 10. Bai Y. 20. Ciccarelli T. 4. Deng J. 25. MacKenzie L. 27. Pierre N. 17. Troisi F.
Coaches
Smyrniotis B.	Sartini V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Cavallini L. ⚽, Batisse A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 3)
56', Reid A. ↓, MacKenzie L. ↑,
60', Nimick D. 🟨,
69', Borges T. ↓, Jensen N. ↑,
69', Bahamboula J. ↓, Pierre N. ↑,
78', Cavallini L. ↓, Oketokoun I. ↑,
78', Sadek A. ↓, Johnson L. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Nimick D. ⚽, Jensen N. (A),
81', 2 - 1, Pierre N. ⚽, Callegari L. (A),
85', Linder F. ↓, Bai Y. ↑,
85', Zitman S. ↓, Ciccarelli T. ↑,
85', Arilla M. ↓, Troisi F. ↑,
90', 3 - 1, Oketokoun I. ⚽, Jensen N. (A),
90+1', Bourgeois M. ↓, Krutzen D. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 2, MacKenzie L. ⚽,
90+13', 3 - 3, Ciccarelli T. ⚽, Meilleur-Gigeuere T. (A),
90+16', James M. 🟨,

Preview

Forge is Qualified for Canadian Premier League (Play Offs Semi~finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Forge won 4.

Forge is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Performances by HFX Wanderers have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Forge carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Forge has recorded 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:15 (averaging 1.6:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Forge against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 20:4 goals (averaging 1.8:0.4 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Forge	28	17	7	4	49:22	27	58
7	HFX Wanderers	28	7	7	14	44:50	-6	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forge FC
Canadian Premier League
26.09.26	Vancouver FC - Forge	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Cavalry - Forge	1:1 ✺
Canadian Championship
15.09.26	Forge - Supra du Québec	1:0 ✺
Canadian Premier League
12.09.26	Forge - Atlético Ottawa	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Forge - Inter Toronto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTWWT
- HFX Wanderers
Canadian Premier League
26.09.26	HFX Wanderers - Atlético Ottawa	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	HFX Wanderers - Inter Toronto	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Supra du Québec - HFX Wanderers	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	HFX Wanderers - Cavalry	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Pacific FC - HFX Wanderers	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Canadian Premier League
02.08.26	HFX Wanderers - Forge	0:0
10.06.26	Forge - HFX Wanderers	1:0
Canadian Championship
09.05.26	Forge - HFX Wanderers	4:0
Canadian Premier League
02.05.26	HFX Wanderers - Forge	1:3
06.09.25	Forge - HFX Wanderers	1:0
25.07.25	HFX Wanderers - Forge	1:2
08.06.25	Forge - HFX Wanderers	2:1

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