Match Info

Serie B - Round 13

Date: 16 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping


	Fortaleza		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.50	5.75	Watch
	1.63	3.40	5.25
	1.53	3.90	6.10	Watch
	1.70	3.65	6.20
	1.51	4.18	6.21
	1.65	3.30	5.50
	1.62	3.49	6.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.58)	3.63 ↑ (3.63)	5.86 ↑ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
58.3%

Draw
25.8%

América Mineiro
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

25.4%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

19.4%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fortaleza - América Mineiro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 33. Kaua Rocha 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 22. Mailton 29. Rodrigo 88. Lucas Sasha (C) 18. Fuentes G. 10. Lucas Crispim 11. Vitinho 32. Luiz Fernando	1. Gustavo (G) 42. Jhonny 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 26. Manoel 29. Dalbert 77. Segovia M. 93. Jorge Jimenez 21. Eduardo Person 23. Everton Brito 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 7. Gabriel Barros
Substitutes
99. Kayke 19. Lucas Emanoel 38. Lucca Prior 13. Mauricio Junior 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 7. Pochettino T. 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	16. Ale 2. Emerson Santos 32. Filipe Dahora 30. Montes L. 61. Oliveira G. 20. Paulo Victor 4. Rafa Barcelos 19. William (G) 9. Willian Bigode 10. Yago Souza
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Umberto Louzer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Segovia M. ⚽, Gabriel Barros (A),
44', 0 - 2, Gabriel Barros ⚽, Segovia M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rodrigo ↓, Welliton ↑,
46', Kaua Rocha ↓, Lucas Emanoel ↑,
59', Lucas Crispim ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
59', Mailton ↓, Mauricio Junior ↑,
62', Everton Brito ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
62', Eduardo Person ↓, Ale ↑,
66', Gabriel Barros ↓, Yago Souza ↑,
75', Gustavo 🟨,
79', Vitinho ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
84', Jorge Jimenez ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
84', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Willian Bigode ↑,
87', Manoel 🟨,
90+3', Lucas Emanoel 🟨,
90+4', Thiago Carpini 🟨,
90+10', 0 - 3, Willian Bigode (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4.

Fortaleza has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

América MG has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fortaleza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Britez E. (Yellow Cards) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Matheus Rossetto (Inactive) Miritello J. B. (Red Card) Rodriguinho (Red Card)

There will not play in América MG: Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Heitor (Injury) Wesley (Muscle Injury) Yago Santos (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:11. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 2.8:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 13.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.06.26	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
02.06.26	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLLW
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
08.06.26	América Mineiro - Atlético Goianiense	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Juventude - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
24.05.26	América Mineiro - Vila Nova	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	São Bernardo - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
08.10.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	3:2
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	2:1
24.08.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:3
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1
15.10.22	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:2
19.06.22	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	1:0
30.10.21	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1

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