Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.92	2.98	2.48	Watch
	3.04	3.15	2.62
	2.98	2.88	2.58	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.5
	2.92	2.91	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.1)	2.97 ↓ (3.09)	2.52 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
31.7%

Draw
31.3%

Fortaleza
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

30.2%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

30.2%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	35.7%	57.1%

Athletic Club - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 6. Zeca (C) 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 22. Diogo Batista 5. Ian Luccas 16. Joao Miguel 8. Cabezas G. 14. Marcelo Henrique 11. Max 21. Vera D.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 33. Kaua Rocha 75. Rodriguinho 88. Lucas Sasha 29. Rodrigo 18. Fuentes G. 31. Welliton 11. Vitinho 9. Miritello J. B.
Substitutes
17. Alexandre Pena 7. Bruninho 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 20. Gabriel Moyses 10. Gustavinho 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 15. Jota 19. Kauan Lindes 18. Pedro Oliveira 23. Ruan Assis	99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 38. Lucca Prior 32. Luiz Fernando 22. Mailton 13. Mauricio Junior 77. Paulo Baya 7. Pochettino T. 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G)
Coaches
Alex Souza	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Kaua Rocha 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kaua Rocha ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
46', Rodriguinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Ian Luccas ⚽,
60', Vitinho ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
60', Welliton ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
65', Vera D. ↓, Jota ↑,
65', Max ↓, Bruninho ↑,
72', Rodrigo ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
81', Ian Luccas ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
90', Cabezas G. ↓, Alexandre Pena ↑,
90', Zeca ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Philipe Sampaio (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 13.3% Athletic Club: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
25.05.26	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Athletic Club - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Internacional RS - Athletic Club	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Vila Nova - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTLTT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Fortaleza - Londrina	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLLT

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