Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Serafim D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SBT, SportyNet


	Sport Recife		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.68	3	2.45	Watch
	2.85	3.06	2.49
	2.46	3.37	2.69	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.45
	2.78	2.9	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.25)	3.11 ↓ (3.3)	2.48 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
33.6%

Draw
29.5%

Fortaleza
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

27.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

26%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sport Recife's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sport Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sport Recife - Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 5. Benevenuto (C) 6. Biel Fonseca 30. Chrystian Barletta 25. Clayson 60. Felipinho 13. Madson 9. Pedro Perotti 7. Yago Felipe 58. Ze Lucas 4. Ze Marcos	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 88. Lucas Sasha 32. Luiz Fernando 22. Mailton 20. Matheus Rossetto 13. Mauricio Junior 9. Miritello J. B. 11. Vitinho
Substitutes
68. Augusto 10. de Pena Carlos 96. Edson Lucas 47. Fabio Matheus 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 95. Iury Castilho 3. Marcelo Ajul 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 48. Pedro Martins 23. Ze Gabriel	18. Fuentes G. 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Azevedo M.	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', Pedro Perotti 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Miritello J. B. ⚽, Mauricio Junior (A),
45+2', Miritello J. B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pierre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
46', Mailton ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Miritello J. B. ⚽,
60', Yago Felipe ↓, de Pena Carlos ↑,
60', Clayson ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
61', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
61', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
73', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
73', Mauricio Junior ↓, Fuentes G. ↑,
78', Biel Fonseca ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
88', Miritello J. B. 🟨,
90+5', Luiz Fernando ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
90+8', Benevenuto 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

Recife is Qualified for

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.

Recife is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Recife won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 0.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Juventude - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Sport Recife - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWLWW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Fortaleza - Londrina	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0
26.04.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2
26.05.24	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	1:4
21.02.24	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	1:1

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