Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Fossombrone		Atletico Ascoli

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.52
	2.47	3.45	2.52	Watch
	2.46	3.24	2.52
	2.54	3.14	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.49)	3.26 ↓ (3.36)	2.53 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fossombrone
36.5%

Draw
27.8%

Atletico Ascoli
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

27.2%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

26.8%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fossombrone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Atletico Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Ascoli than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 6)

Fossombrone is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atletico Ascoli has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fossombrone won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Fossombrone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Fossombrone - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.75%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
30.11.25	Ancona - Fossombrone	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Fossombrone - San Marino Calcio	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	L Aquila - Fossombrone	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Fossombrone - Termoli	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sammaurese - Fossombrone	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWLWW
- Atletico Ascoli
Italian Serie D - Group F
30.11.25	Atletico Ascoli - Vigor Senigallia	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Sora - Atletico Ascoli	0:4 ✺
16.11.25	Atletico Ascoli - Giulianova	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Maceratese - Atletico Ascoli	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Atletico Ascoli - UniPomezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
20.10.24	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	1:0
03.12.23	Atletico Ascoli - Fossombrone	0:0

Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide