Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	L Aquila		Fossombrone

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.44	4.32	Watch
	1.72	3.38	4.49
	1.74	3.4	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.69)	3.41 ↓ (3.55)	4.4 ↓ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

L Aquila
52.5%

Draw
26.8%

Fossombrone
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

25.9%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

25.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

L Aquila has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for L Aquila than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

L Aquila - Fossombrone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Corigliano F. ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Sparacello C. ⚽,
45', 3 - 0, Di Renzo L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group F (Play Offs: ) and 8).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, L Aquila is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, L Aquila won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, L Aquila won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- L Aquila Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
09.11.25	Teramo - L Aquila	5:2 ✺
02.11.25	L Aquila - Vigor Senigallia	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Sora - L Aquila	4:1 ✺
19.10.25	L Aquila - Giulianova	1:0 ✺
12.10.25	Maceratese - L Aquila	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLWL
- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
09.11.25	Fossombrone - Termoli	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sammaurese - Fossombrone	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Fossombrone - Notaresco	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Ostia Mare - Fossombrone	3:1 ✺
12.10.25	Fossombrone - Teramo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
24.03.24	L Aquila - Fossombrone	2:0
12.11.23	Fossombrone - L Aquila	0:0

L Aquila - Fossombrone: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide