Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 7

Date: 24 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Dreisamstadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Exuzidis L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Freiburg II		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.5	2.2
	3	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.03	3.64	2.33
	2.88	3.1	2.25
	2.95	3.45	2.22
	2.8	3.3	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.24)	3.42 ↑ (3.35)	2.24 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg II
31.6%

Draw
27.1%

Ingolstadt
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

27.4%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.2%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Freiburg II's form might have worsened.

Ingolstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ingolstadt's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg II than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiburg II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ingolstadt, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Freiburg II - Ingolstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Freiburg II will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Ingolstadt will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ingolstadt: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Jantunen J. (G) 23. Fahrner P. 25. Bichsel J. 3. Lungwitz A. 4. Makengo J. 13. Muller S. 28. Johansson R. 22. Baur M. 11. Stark J. 36. Ambros L. 18. Al Ghaddioui H.	1. Funk M. (G) 22. Costly M. 19. Cvjetinovic M. 16. Malone R. 23. Seiffert M. 34. Frode L. (C) 43. Keidel F. 29. Kopacz D. 20. Deichmann Y. 37. Testroet P. 7. Mause J.
Substitutes
27. Allgaier F. 19. Bouebari F. 6. Braun-Schumacher S. 17. Fallmann P. 14. Knappe D. 8. Lienhard P. 40. Sauter N. (G) 20. Worner M.	9. Beleme D. 6. Guwara L. 8. Kanuric B. 31. Kugel J. 32. Lorenz S. 27. Nduka D. 40. Ponath M. (G) 45. Rausch T. 21. Schrock T.
Coaches
Stamm T.	Kollner M.

Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Freiburg II is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ingolstadt is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Freiburg II won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Freiburg II won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Freiburg II
German 3 Bundesliga
16.09.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Freiburg II	0:2 ✺
02.09.23	Freiburg II - Rot-Weiß Essen	0:2 ✺
26.08.23	Verl - Freiburg II	3:2 ✺
23.08.23	Freiburg II - Unterhaching	0:0 ✺
20.08.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Freiburg II	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLTL
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
16.09.23	Ingolstadt - 1860 München	2:1 ✺
02.09.23	Dynamo Dresden - Ingolstadt	2:0 ✺
26.08.23	Ingolstadt - Saarbrücken	2:2 ✺
22.08.23	Preußen Münster - Ingolstadt	3:1 ✺
19.08.23	Ingolstadt - Hallescher	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
12.03.23	Ingolstadt - Freiburg II	0:1
03.09.22	Freiburg II - Ingolstadt	1:0

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