Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 16

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Toho (Fukushima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Fukushima United		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3.45	2.28	Watch
	2.66	3.72	2.37
	2.61	3.93	2.32	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.25
	2.64	3.52	2.46	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (3.2)	3.58 ↑ (3.25)	2.31 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fukushima United
34.2%

Draw
25.8%

Júbilo Iwata
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.7%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fukushima United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fukushima United's performance.

Júbilo Iwata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fukushima United than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fukushima United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Fukushima United - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Iwata will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Anzai S. (G) 77. Chiba T. 17. Fujitani T. 29. Tsuchiya K. 23. Anzai T. 10. Harigaya T. 30. Kano K. 6. Uehata U. 7. Ashibe K. 40. Higuchi H. 8. Okada Y.	21. Miura R. (G) 20. Kato D. 3. Morioka R. 36. Yoshimura R. 38. Kawaguchi N. 6. Kaneko D. 77. Fujiwara K. 4. Matsubara K. 16. Gustavo Silva 39. Sumi K. 42. Ishizuka R.
Substitutes
32. Einaga T. 19. Fujita J. 11. Miura K. 14. Nakamura T. 9. Shimizu K. 26. Tanaka K. 5. Toma H. 1. Ueda T. (G) 96. Yoshida J.	13. Abe K. (G) 18. Inoue S. 34. Kai Y. 2. Kawasaki I. 11. Matheus Peixoto 27. Sato R. 50. Uemura H. 52. Van den Bergh J. 9. Watanabe R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Fujiwara K. 🟨,
12', Chiba T. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Ashibe K. ⚽, Uehata U. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Matsubara K. ⚽,
45+3', Harigaya T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', 2 - 1, Uehata U. ⚽, Anzai T. (A),
54', Ishizuka R. ↓, Matheus Peixoto ↑,
54', Gustavo Silva ↓, Watanabe R. ↑,
59', Okada Y. ↓, Fujita J. ↑,
59', Chiba T. ↓, Shimizu K. ↑,
64', Matsubara K. ↓, Uemura H. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Kano K. ⚽, Uehata U. (A),
73', Kawaguchi N. ↓, Kawasaki I. ↑,
73', Sumi K. ↓, Sato R. ↑,
77', Kano K. ↓, Toma H. ↑,
77', Ashibe K. ↓, Nakamura T. ↑,
82', 4 - 1, Nakamura T. ⚽, Harigaya T. (A),
88', Higuchi H. ↓, Miura K. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Matheus Peixoto ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: )).

Fukushima United has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Iwata is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Fukushima United may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Iwata might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fukushima United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Fukushima United - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 28.96%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Júbilo Iwata - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.52%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fukushima United
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Fujieda MYFC - Fukushima United	1:2 penalties ✺
03.05.26	Fukushima United - Omiya Ardija	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Nagano Parceiro - Fukushima United	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Fukushima United - Ventforet Kofu	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Fukushima United - Gifu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWLL
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Ventforet Kofu - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Júbilo Iwata - Iwaki	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Júbilo Iwata - Gifu	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Omiya Ardija - Júbilo Iwata	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
28.02.26	Júbilo Iwata - Fukushima United	1:0 penalties

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