Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion miejski w Katowicach (Katowice)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 2
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	GKS Katowice		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.25
	2.92	3.6	2.15
	3.12	3.89	2.2
	6.41	3.78	1.55	Watch
	3.17	3.68	2.15	Watch
	2.72	3.5	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↓ (3.52)	3.65 ↓ (3.8)	2.09 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

GKS Katowice
27.7%

Draw
26.3%

Lech Poznań
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

24.7%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

24.8%

48.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

GKS Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	7.7%	84.6%

GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lech Poznań will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Straczek R. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 6. Klemenz L. 23. Wasielewski M. 5. Bosch J. 77. Kowalczyk M. 8. Galan B. 15. Markovic E. 80. Shkurin I. 27. Nowak B.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 20. Gumny R. 72. Skrzypczak M. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 19. Fiabema B. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. 14. Bengtsson L. 24. Jagiello F. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
11. Blad A. 24. Gruszkowski K. 2. Kuusk M. 19. Lukasiak K. 22. Milewski S. 16. Rogala G. 7. Rosolek M. 33. Szczuka P. (G) 10. Wedrychowski M.	7. Agnero Y. 3. Douglas A. 15. Gurgul M. 88. Ismaheel T. 56. Lisman K. 27. Monka W. 2. Pereira J. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 99. Rodriguez P. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Gorak R.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Fiabema B. ⚽, Jagiello F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Kozubal A. 🟨,
59', Moutinho J. 🟨,
60', Kowalczyk M. ↓, Milewski S. ↑,
67', Fiabema B. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
67', Gumny R. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
67', Jagiello F. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
67', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
67', Markovic E. ↓, Wedrychowski M. ↑,
67', Shkurin I. ↓, Rosolek M. ↑,
74', Galan B. 🟨,
84', Bengtsson L. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
90+2', Czerwinski A. ↓, Blad A. ↑,
90+2', Galan B. ↓, Rogala G. ↑,
90+3', Ishak M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 8).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

GKS Katowice may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Paluszek A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A. (Thigh Injury) Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Palma L. (Red Card) Walemark P. (Surgery)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, GKS Katowice won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, GKS Katowice won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GKS Katowice
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.09.25	Wisła Płock - GKS Katowice	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
23.09.25	GKS Katowice - Wisła Płock	4:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.09.25	GKS Katowice - Cracovia	0:3 ✺
12.09.25	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	GKS Katowice - Radomiak Radom	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLLW
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Lech Poznań - Rapid Wien	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
18.05.25	GKS Katowice - Lech Poznań	2:2
23.11.24	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	2:0

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