Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2, Arena Sport 4
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.9	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.75	2.85
	2.1	3.6	3
	2.18	3.87	3.2
	2.28	3.71	2.80	Watch
	2.15	3.66	3.1	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.08)	3.66 ↑ (3.2)	3.07 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
43.7%

Draw
25.7%

GKS Katowice
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.9%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

GKS Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	30.8%	23.1%

Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 6 - 50%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). GKS Katowice (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Lechia (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). GKS Katowice (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Kludka B. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 7. Viunnyk B. 90. Kurminowski D. 99. Neugebauer T.	1. Kudla D. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 16. Rogala G. 10. Wedrychowski M. 23. Wasielewski M. 5. Bosch J. 22. Milewski S. 8. Galan B. 99. Zrelak A. 27. Nowak B.
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 26. Brzek B. 8. Cirkovic A. 21. Glogowski M. 16. Jaunzems A. 23. Kalahur M. 3. Olsson E. 79. Sezonienko K. 77. Sinkiewicz D. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T.	11. Blad A. 24. Gruszkowski K. 6. Klemenz L. 77. Kowalczyk M. 19. Lukasiak K. 15. Markovic E. 20. Rejczyk F. 7. Rosolek M. 80. Shkurin I. 12. Straczek R. (G) 25. Trepka L.
Coaches
Carver J.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Bosch J. ↓, Kowalczyk M. ↑,
58', Wedrychowski M. ↓, Blad A. ↑,
59', Zrelak A. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
60', Jedrych A. 🟨,
64', Neugebauer T. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
86', Kludka B. ↓, Jaunzems A. ↑,
86', Kurminowski D. ↓, Sezonienko K. ↑,
90+2', Mena C. 🟨,
90+3', Viunnyk B. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,
90+6', Paulsen A. 🟨,
90+8', Milewski S. ↓, Markovic E. ↑,
90+8', Rogala G. ↓, Klemenz L. ↑,
90+10', Kapic R. 🟨,
90+17', 2 - 0, Mena C. ⚽, Rodin M. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 14).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lechia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lechia: Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury) Tsarenko A. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Lechia: Pllana B. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Lechia Gdańsk	6:2 ✺
11.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	3:3 ✺
03.08.25	Cracovia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLTT
- GKS Katowice
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.08.25	GKS Katowice - Radomiak Radom	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - GKS Katowice	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
10.08.25	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	3:1 ✺
02.08.25	Widzew Łódź - GKS Katowice	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.05.25	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	2:3
30.11.24	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0
Polish Division 1
07.04.24	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
22.09.23	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	5:1

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