Match Info

AZERBAIJAN: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 25

Date: 3 March 2024, Sunday


	Gabala		Səbail

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.25
	2.75	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.83	3.35	2.25
	2.88	3.24	2.34
	2.71	3.3	2.36	Watch
	2.85	3.2	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3.7)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	2.3 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
32.6%

Draw
27.9%

Səbail
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

26.8%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

26%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gabala's performance.

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Səbail might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gabala that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Səbail could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Gabala - Səbail Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Gabala will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Səbail will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gabala: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Atangana C. (G) 34. Abbasov U. (C) 12. Aliyev N. 9. Allach A. 20. Aouacheria B. 99. Isaiah A. 72. Khalaila O. 4. Lucas Africo 3. Ochigava Z. 2. Qyrtymov I. 7. Safarov E.	1. Agayev S. (G) 11. Abdullazada R. 55. Bardea N. 17. Maharramli R. 77. Masika A. 4. Mehremic A. 74. Nabiyev Y. (C) 21. Najah A. 88. Pana 27. Pedro N. 9. Ramalingom A.
Substitutes
8. Abramov G. 27. Ahmadov E. 17. Akakpo Y. 1. Azizli R. (G) 18. Bakhshali M. 10. Bauque C. 5. Huseynli R. 14. Isgandarov U. 11. Mammadov A. 33. Mursalov H. 28. Musayev M. 36. Sultanov E. (G)	19. Abdullayev S. 18. Ahmadov S. 14. Allouch S. 15. Hasanov V. 8. Haziyev B. 44. Lugasi Y. 7. Maddi 12. Quliyev H. (G)

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gabala won 3.

Gabala is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Səbail is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gabala could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 30 head-to-head matches Gabala won 17 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 53-33.

Including matches at home between the teams Gabala won 10 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 31-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.02.24	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	0:4 ✺
23.02.24	Kapaz - Gabala	2:1 ✺
13.02.24	Turan Tovuz - Gabala	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
09.02.24	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
04.02.24	Gabala - Zira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLLWT
- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
24.02.24	Səbail - Sabah	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	2:2 ✺
12.02.24	Kapaz - Səbail	1:4 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
08.02.24	Zira - Səbail	3:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.02.24	Səbail - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
15.12.23	Səbail - Gabala	3:0
07.10.23	Gabala - Səbail	0:1
01.05.23	Gabala - Səbail	4:2
Azerbaijan Cup
27.04.23	Səbail - Gabala	0:1
18.04.23	Gabala - Səbail	3:2
Azerbaijan Premier League
24.02.23	Səbail - Gabala	2:2
03.12.22	Gabala - Səbail	2:1

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