Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu (Gabala)

Referee: Umudlu K. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Gabala		Araz Naxçıvan

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.2
	2.15	3.25	2.98
	2.3	3.45	3.02
	2.33	3.2	2.89	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.17	3.51	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.3)	3.27 ↑ (3.25)	3.03 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
41.8%

Draw
28%

Araz Naxçıvan
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

26.9%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gabala will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Araz will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Cafarov R. (G) 27. Ahmadov E. 24. Akinade I. 13. Aliyev N. 16. Amoah I. 33. Keita S. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. (C) 30. Owusu P. 10. Shahniyarov S. 6. Sierra J.	12. Avram C. (G) 34. Abbasov U. (C) 24. Ahmadzada M. 70. Boli C. 26. Buludov O. 8. Diniyev C. 4. Mammadov R. 17. Paro I. 16. Ramon Machado 23. Rodrigues N. 10. Santos F.
Substitutes
1. Agayev S. (G) 74. Damadayev S. 3. Eduardo Kunde 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I.	94. Ahmadli T. (G) 6. Andrade P. 77. Bruno Franco 3. Hasanalizada B. 14. Isgandarov U. 7. Keyta H. 86. Piriyev I. 11. Simakala B.
Coaches
Tskhadadze K.	Demchenko A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Sierra J. 🟨,
45', Musayev M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diniyev C. ↓, Andrade P. ↑,
61', Boli C. ↓, Keyta H. ↑,
61', Ramon Machado ↓, Simakala B. ↑,
61', Santos F. ↓, Isgandarov U. ↑,
63', Avram C. 🟨,
76', 1 - 0, Buludov O. (Own goal),
83', 1 - 1, Paro I. ⚽,
87', Aliyev N. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
90+3', Owusu P. ↓, Iskandarov F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 3.

Gabala is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Araz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Araz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gabala might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:5. (average 2.2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4
12	Araz	6	0	2	4	5:13	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
19.04.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Gabala - İmişli	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Kapaz - Gabala	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Turan Tovuz - Gabala	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Gabala - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- Araz Naxçıvan PFK
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.04.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Sabah	2:4 ✺
18.03.26	Shamakhi - Araz Naxçıvan	0:1 ✺
13.03.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Karvan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
30.11.25	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:1
30.08.25	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	2:1
19.05.24	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0
16.03.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	1:1
Azerbaijan Cup
09.02.24	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	2:0
31.01.24	Araz Naxçıvan - Gabala	1:1
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.10.23	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	1:4

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