Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Axis Bird Stadium (Tottori) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Gainare Tottori		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.30	2.40
	2.50	3.30	2.38	Watch
	2.73	3.60	2.39
	2.59	3.54	2.49	Watch
	2.70	3.40	2.30
	2.63	3.61	2.43	Watch
	2.60	3.35	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.33)	3.44 ↑ (3.3)	2.4 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainare Tottori
35.2%

Draw
26.6%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
38.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.4%

27.1%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

26.6%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainare Tottori has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainare Tottori than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Momoi R. (G) 3. Nozawa Van Eerden S. T. 4. Nikaido S. (C) 55. Oshima H. 16. Tasei Y. 7. Arai R. 2. Fujita I. 27. Hombo K. 14. Kawamura T. 19. Yamamoto S. 29. Konishi H.	13. Kondo I. (G) 2. Nakamura R. 16. Yamahara K. 3. Ohata R. 22. Nuki M. 28. Nodake J. 27. Fujimura R. (C) 19. Farzan Sana M. 20. Shimokawa T. 17. Hyakuda M. 99. Nakashima T.
Substitutes
88. Burns A. (G) 24. Hoshi K. 42. Kaneura M. 15. Kiuchi T. 10. Miki N. 32. Moon M. 9. Shinoda D. 8. Tojo A. 22. Yoshida I.	8. Kamigaki R. 15. Kazama K. 77. Kotake S. 30. Koyanagi T. 29. Matsumoto K. 78. Okada S. (G) 14. Sakurai A. 4. Tamashiro T. 18. Tanaka S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Hyakuda M. ⚽, Shimokawa T. (A),
7', 1 - 1, Yamamoto S. ⚽, Nozawa Van Eerden S. T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Shimokawa T. ↓, Sakurai A. ↑,
58', Fujita I. ↓, Tojo A. ↑,
58', Konishi H. ↓, Miki N. ↑,
68', Fujimura R. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
68', Nuki M. ↓, Kotake S. ↑,
71', Yamamoto S. ↓, Yoshida I. ↑,
74', Kotake S. 🟨,
77', Sakurai A. 🟨,
78', Nakashima T. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
78', Nodake J. ↓, Kamigaki R. ↑,
81', Hombo K. ↓, Shinoda D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 12th and 17th).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Thespakusatsu could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Gainare Tottori has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Gainare Tottori has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gainare Tottori against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	13:23	-10	15
18	Kusatsu	13	4	1	8	12:22	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Gainare Tottori - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 38.43%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainare Tottori
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Gainare Tottori - Cerezo Osaka	2:3 ✺
Japan J3 League
11.10.26	Gainare Tottori - Gifu	0:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Gainare Tottori - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J3 League
03.10.26	Matsumoto Yamaga - Gainare Tottori	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gainare Tottori - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 LLLWW
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
10.10.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Ryūkyū	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Ehime - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kochi United	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
20.09.25	Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:1
16.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Gainare Tottori	2:0
Japan J2 League
10.11.13	Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1

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