Match Info

J3 League - Round 28

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Axis Bird Stadium (Tottori)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Gainare Tottori		Thespakusatsu Gunma

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.3	2.35
	2.75	3.56	2.38
	2.77	3.28	2.44	Watch
	2.74	3.45	2.41	Watch
	2.85	3.33	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (2.85)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.36 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainare Tottori
33.6%

Draw
27.3%

Thespakusatsu Gunma
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.4%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

26.2%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainare Tottori has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Thespakusatsu Gunma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainare Tottori than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Gainare Tottori will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gainare Tottori (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gainare Tottori (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Gainare Tottori (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gainare Tottori (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Koma R. (G) 17. Matsumoto T. 3. Nagano S. 6. Nukui H. 16. Maruyama S. 11. Tojo A. 34. Soga D. 21. Kawamura T. 19. Miki N. 14. Fukoin M. 10. Togashi Y.	13. Kondo I. (G) 30. Koyanagi T. 3. Ohata R. 14. Kikuchi K. 20. Shimokawa T. 36. Adachi S. 33. Sakurai A. 18. Tanaka S. 7. Nishimura Y. 27. Fujimura R. 32. Kawata A.
Substitutes
37. Funahashi K. 18. Handa K. 77. Hashimoto S. 32. Ikawa T. 42. Kaneura M. 7. Ozawa H. 39. Sakuraba R. (G) 13. Shimizu Y. 8. Tanaka K.	9. Aoki S. 15. Kazama K. 21. Kim Je-hee (G) 38. Konishi H. 48. Nakashima T. 43. Nose S. 37. Sehata G. 5. Yamaguchi K. 8. Yamauchi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', 1 - 0, Togashi Y. ⚽, Miki N. (A),
54', Koyanagi T. 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, Fukoin M. ⚽, Soga D. (A),
59', 3 - 0, Fukoin M. ⚽, Miki N. (A),
60', Fujimura R. ↓, Kazama K. ↑,
60', Shimokawa T. ↓, Konishi H. ↑,
61', Kawata A. 🟨,
64', Matsumoto T. ↓, Hashimoto S. ↑,
64', Kawata A. ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
73', Tojo A. 🟨,
75', Togashi Y. ↓, Handa K. ↑,
75', Fukoin M. ↓, Ozawa H. ↑,
75', Soga D. ↓, Shimizu Y. ↑,
77', Tanaka S. ↓, Yamaguchi K. ↑,
77', Nishimura Y. ↓, Nakashima T. ↑,
82', Tojo A. ↓, Kaneura M. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Aoki S. ⚽, Nakashima T. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 17).

Recent performances by Gainare Tottori have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Thespakusatsu is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gainare Tottori won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Gainare Tottori won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainare Tottori
Japan J3 League
13.09.25	Nagano Parceiro - Gainare Tottori	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Gainare Tottori - Fukushima United	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Gainare Tottori	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Gainare Tottori - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Gainare Tottori - Kochi United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLLTW
- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
13.09.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Ryūkyū - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Thespakusatsu Gunma	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Tochigi	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Osaka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
16.03.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Gainare Tottori	2:0
Japan J2 League
10.11.13	Gainare Tottori - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1

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