Match Info

J2 League - Round 21

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: ND Soft Stadium Yamagata (Tendo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Montedio Yamagata		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.9	1.95	Watch
	3.1	3.4	1.98
				Watch
	3.43	3.95	2.04
				Watch
	3.25	3.4	2
	3.31	3.91	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (3.19)	3.71 ↑ (3.59)	1.99 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montedio Yamagata
28.3%

Draw
25%

V-Varen Nagasaki
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26.1%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

26%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montedio Yamagata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

Montedio Yamagata - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for V-Varen Nagasaki: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Hasegawa K. (G) 15. Kawai A. 4. Nishimura K. 5. Abe T. 2. Yoshida T. 7. Takae L. 8. Konishi Y. 25. Kokubu S. 10. Kida R. 11. Fujimoto Y. 14. Sakamoto K.	21. Goto M. (G) 25. Kushibiki K. 29. Arai I. 44. Egawa Y. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. 6. Abe T. 8. Masuyama A. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 9. Juanma Delgado
Substitutes
90. Disaro A. S. 88. Doi S. 55. Horikane S. 42. Issaka Z. 32. Kambayashi T. (G) 71. Nakamura R. 13. Nodake H. 22. Shirowa H. 9. Takahashi J.	31. Harada G. (G) 11. Junio E. 33. Kasayanagi T. 7. Marcos Guilherme 34. Matsumoto T. 3. Sekiguchi M. 17. Takahata K. 48. Teruyama H. 18. Yamasaki R.
Coaches
Yokouchi A.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', Abe T. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Yoneda S. ⚽, Juanma Delgado (A),
42', Konishi Y. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Fujimoto Y. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fujimoto Y. ↓, Disaro A. S. ↑,
54', Juanma Delgado 🟨,
60', Kida R. ↓, Issaka Z. ↑,
60', Sakamoto K. ↓, Takahashi J. ↑,
61', Sawada T. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
61', Abe T. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Kasayanagi T. (A),
73', Arai I. ↓, Teruyama H. ↑,
73', Kokubu S. ↓, Doi S. ↑,
83', Juanma Delgado ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
84', Masuyama A. ↓, Sekiguchi M. ↑,
84', Konishi Y. ↓, Nakamura R. ↑,
86', Kushibiki K. 🟨,
90+5', Yoneda S. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 2.

Montedio Yamagata has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

V-Varen Nagasaki is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

V-Varen Nagasaki might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montedio Yamagata won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Montedio Yamagata won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

V-Varen Nagasaki - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.56%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
22.06.25	Blaublitz Akita - Montedio Yamagata	2:3 ✺
15.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Vegalta Sendai	3:4 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - Kagoshima United	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
31.05.25	Fujieda MYFC - Montedio Yamagata	2:1 ✺
25.05.25	Montedio Yamagata - Ventforet Kofu	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWLL
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
22.06.25	Roasso Kumamoto - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	3:3 ✺
31.05.25	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:0 ✺
25.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
11.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
17.08.24	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:2
03.04.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	2:0
22.07.23	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	5:1
25.03.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	3:2
06.07.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Montedio Yamagata	1:1
01.05.22	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0

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