Match Info

J1 League - Round 13

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Kyoto Sanga		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.3	2.82	Watch
	2.38	3.25	2.82
	2.48	3.41	3.01
	2.48	3.39	2.82	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8
	2.52	3.36	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.32)	3.3 ↓ (3.45)	2.84 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kyoto Sanga
38.6%

Draw
28.4%

Gamba Osaka
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

27%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.5%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ota G. (G) 2. Fukuda S. 5. Appiah Tawiah H. 50. Suzuki Y. (C) 44. Sato K. 6. Joao Pedro 25. Yoon S. 16. Hiraoka T. 11. Marco Tulio 88. Gustavo Barreto 18. Matsuda T.	18. Araki R. (G) 15. Kishimoto T. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 47. Nakano S. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 7. Usami T. 44. Okunuki K. 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
77. Arai H. 3. Asada S. 19. David 39. Hirato T. 21. Kakoi K. (G) 48. Nakano R. 9. Rafael Elias 22. Sugai H. 8. Yonemoto T.	21. Hatsuse R. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 10. Kurata S. 8. Meshino R. 42. Minamino H. 41. Nakamura J. 40. Toyama S. 36. Yamamoto T.
Coaches
Jo Gwi-Jae	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Usami T. 🟨,
61', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Rafael Elias ↑,
70', Usami T. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
70', Okunuki K. ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
73', Hiraoka T. ↓, Hirato T. ↑,
73', Matsuda T. ↓, Arai H. ↑,
89', 1 - 0, Arai H. ⚽, Rafael Elias (A),
90+2', Yoon S. ↓, Yonemoto T. ↑,
90+2', Sato K. ↓, Asada S. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Minamino H. ⚽,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Minamino H. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Marco Tulio (Penalty Awarded),
2, Meshino R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Joao Pedro (Penalty Awarded),
3, Nakatani S. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Rafael Elias (Penalty Awarded),
4, Hummet D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Yonemoto T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Miura G. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Asada S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Yamashita R. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Hirato T. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Suzuki T. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Fukuda S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Kyoto: Fukuoka S. (Knee Injury) Henrique Trevisan (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S. (Hamstring Injury) Handa R. (Injury) Ichimori J. (Finger Injury) Sasaki S. (Hamstring Injury) Uenaka A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Gamba Osaka: Abe S. (Injury) Jebali I. (Injury) Welton (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
14	Kyoto	4	1	1	2	6:8	-2	4

Last Results with these Odds

Kyoto Sanga - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.16%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Gamba Osaka - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.88%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
18.04.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama	5:1 ✺
04.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
18.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWLWW
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
25.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:2 penalties ✺
22.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama	3:2 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League 2
15.04.26	Bangkok United - Gamba Osaka	0:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
04.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:0
28.06.25	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	3:1
29.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	2:1
22.09.24	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:2
03.04.24	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	0:0
08.07.23	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	1:0
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	0:1

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