Match Info

J1 League - Round 18

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.3	2.35	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.4
	2.82	3.3	2.38	Watch
	2.91	3.5	2.49
	2.89	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.84	3.25	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.89)	3.28 ↑ (3.2)	2.42 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
32.9%

Draw
28.5%

Gamba Osaka
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

29.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

30.1%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Gamba Osaka aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Shimizu S Pulse - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Umeda T. (G) 28. Yoshida Y. 51. Sumiyoshi J. 15. Honda Y. 25. Brunetti M. 6. Uno Z. (C) 10. Matheus Bueno 47. Shimamoto Y. 81. Kozuka K. 9. Oh Se-Hun 21. Matsuzaki K.	18. Araki R. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 5. Miura G. 4. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 7. Usami T. 8. Meshino R. 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
23. Chiba K. 4. Hasukawa S. 5. Kitazume K. 44. Nishihara M. 97. Ohata R. 1. Oki Y. (G) 70. Takagi S. 38. Takahashi T. 17. Yumiba M.	1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 42. Minamino H. 47. Nakano S. 38. Nawata G. 67. Sasaki S. 35. Tono T. 97. Welton 36. Yamamoto T. 32. Yoshihara Y.
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Mito R. 🟨,
19', Uno Z. ↓, Yumiba M. ↑,
30', Meshino R. ↓, Welton ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 0, Yumiba M. ⚽, Yoshida Y. (A),
60', Yamashita R. ↓, Nawata G. ↑,
60', Usami T. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Minamino H. ⚽, Hatsuse R. (A),
64', Sumiyoshi J. 🟨,
68', Matsuzaki K. ↓, Nishihara M. ↑,
68', Kozuka K. ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
75', 1 - 2, Yoshida Y. (Own goal),
76', Brunetti M. ↓, Takagi S. ↑,
77', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
79', Suzuki T. 🟨,
83', Hummet D. ↓, Yamamoto T. ↑,
83', Suzuki T. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
90+2', Yamamoto T. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gamba Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S. (Hamstring Injury) Handa R. (Injury) Sasaki S. (Hamstring Injury) Uenaka A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.1:1.6).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Gamba Osaka: 0.71% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Gamba Osaka	4	1	2	1	6:7	-1	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
17.05.26	Fagiano Okayama - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LWWWL
- Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League 2
16.05.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe	5:0 ✺
29.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
28.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2 penalties
15.06.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	0:0
08.03.25	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0
14.08.22	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2
10.04.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	1:1
13.08.21	Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka	0:1
18.04.21	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0

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