Match Info

Premier League

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Rwanda	Magic Sports TV


	Gasogi United		Al-Merreikh

	1	X	2
	3.65	2.88	2.05
	3.71	2.83	2.16	Watch
	3.6	2.7	2.1
	3.62	3	2.12
	3.6	2.71	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↓ (3.81)	2.82 ↓ (3)	2.11 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gasogi United
24.9%

Draw
32.1%

Al-Merreikh
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

29.9%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

28.5%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gasogi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Al-Merreikh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gasogi United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Merreikh than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Merreikh could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Gasogi United - Al Merreikh Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Al-Merreikh will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 3).

Gasogi United has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Al-Merreikh is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al-Merreikh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Al-Merreikh might have a minor edge in this game.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Al-Merreikh	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
18	Gasogi United	1	0	0	1	0:2	-2	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gasogi United
Rwanda Premier League
02.01.26	Gasogi United - Musanze	0:3 ✺
26.12.25	Gasogi United - Kigali	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	APR - Gasogi United	2:0 ✺
12.12.25	Police - Gasogi United	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Gasogi United - Marines	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Al-Merreikh
Rwanda Premier League
29.12.25	Muhanga - Al-Merreikh	0:0 ✺
24.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Musanze	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Gicumbi	1:0 ✺
17.12.25	Etincelles - Al-Merreikh	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Amagaju	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWWW

Gasogi United - Al-Merreikh: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide