Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 8

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: Verboomen N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Denmark	DAZN
Ecuador	DAZN
Finland	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	DAZN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Genk		Saint-Gilloise

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.2	Watch
	2.75	3.5	2.45
	3.1	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.22	3.61	2.24
	3.18	3.55	2.22	Watch
	2.75	3.65	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.65)	3.54 ↓ (3.55)	2.29 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
31.6%

Draw
26.9%

Saint-Gilloise
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

26%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

26.3%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Saint-Gilloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	26.7%	60%

Genk - Saint Gilloise Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Union SG will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Union SG (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Union SG (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lawal T. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 18. Kayembe J. 24. Sattlberger N. (C) 8. Heynen B. 7. Steuckers J. 17. Hrosovsky P. 10. Ito J. 99. Erabi J.	37. Scherpen K. (G) 5. Mac Allister K. 16. Burgess C. (C) 48. Leysen F. 25. Khalaili A. 8. Zorgane A. 4. Rasmussen M. 22. Niang O. 10. Ait El Hadj A. 13. Rodriguez K. 12. David P.
Substitutes
32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 21. Bangoura I. 28. Brughmans L. (G) 44. Kongolo J. 19. Medina Y. 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu 34. Palacios A. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G)	3. Barry M. T. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 30. Florucz R. 20. Giger M. 11. Guilherme Smith 27. Patris L. 17. Schoofs R. 26. Sykes R. 6. Van De Perre K.
Coaches
Fink T.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, David P. ⚽, Burgess C. (A),
27', El Ouahdi Z. 🟨,
44', Leysen F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Niang O. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Ito J. ⚽, Steuckers J. (A),
59', Mac Allister K. 🟨,
62', Rasmussen M. ↓, Van De Perre K. ↑,
62', David P. ↓, Florucz R. ↑,
69', Khalaili A. ↓, Patris L. ↑,
69', Ito J. ↓, Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↑,
69', Erabi J. ↓, Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↑,
69', El Ouahdi Z. ↓, Nkuba K. ↑,
81', Niang O. ↓, Sykes R. ↑,
81', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Schoofs R. ↑,
90', Van De Perre K. 🟨,
90+1', Kayembe J. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Schoofs R. ⚽, Florucz R. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genk won 1.

In recent matches, Genk has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Union SG is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Union SG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Genk: Heymans D. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Union SG: Fuseini M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Genk: Sor Y. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Union SG: David P. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Genk won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Genk won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.09.25	Genk - Charleroi	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Anderlecht - Genk	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genk - Zulte Waregem	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.08.25	Genk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTWLW
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Saint-Gilloise	1:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
13.09.25	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Saint-Gilloise - Anderlecht	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	RAAL La Louvière - Saint-Gilloise	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Saint-Gilloise - Standard Liège	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
03.05.25	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	1:0
20.04.25	Genk - Saint-Gilloise	1:2
15.03.25	Genk - Saint-Gilloise	2:1
10.11.24	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	4:0
26.05.24	Saint-Gilloise - Genk	2:0
01.04.24	Genk - Saint-Gilloise	1:0
03.02.24	Genk - Saint-Gilloise	0:1

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