Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 25

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Achter de Kazerne (Mechelen)

Referee: Boterberg J. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Sporza, Sporza
Japan	DAZN Japan


	KV Mechelen		Genk

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.15	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.52	2.29
	3.2	3.43	2.23
	3.1	3.2	2.2
	3.22	3.42	2.25	Watch
	3.14	3.4	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.4)	3.41 ↓ (3.5)	2.22 ↑ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KV Mechelen
29.8%

Draw
27.7%

Genk
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

26.1%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

25.2%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KV Mechelen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Genk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	22.7%	63.6%

KV Mechelen - Genk Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Mechelen will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Genk will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Mechelen (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH 0 - Mechelen (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Genk (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 2 - 40%). Genk (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Miras N. (G) 33. St. Jago T. 2. Halhal R. 3. Marsa J. 7. Koudou T. 6. Hammar F. (C) 19. Mrabti K. 17. Servais M. 27. Vanrafelghem K. 28. Boersma B. 9. van Brederode M.	26. Lawal T. (G) 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 18. Kayembe J. 77. El Ouahdi Z. 8. Heynen B. (C) 38. Heymans D. 19. Medina Y. 10. Ito J. 23. Bibout A. 20. Karetsas K.
Substitutes
38. Antonio B. 11. Bafdili B. 12. Bande H. 39. Decoene M. 10. Kireev M. 8. Konate M. 14. Raman B. 29. Salifou D. 15. Van Ingelgom T. (G) 23. Zekri M.	32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 21. Bangoura I. 99. Erabi J. 44. Kongolo J. 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 24. Sattlberger N. 14. Sor Y. 7. Steuckers J. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G)
Coaches
Vanderbiest F.	Hayen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Hammar F. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, van Brederode M. ⚽,
26', 1 - 1, Bibout A. ⚽,
31', Ito J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 2 - 1, Mrabti K. ⚽, van Brederode M. (A),
61', 2 - 2, Heynen B. ⚽,
62', Medina Y. ↓, Steuckers J. ↑,
62', Ito J. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
67', Vanrafelghem K. ↓, Antonio B. ↑,
71', Heymans D. 🟨,
74', Halhal R. 🟨,
76', 2 - 3, Heymans D. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Bibout A. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
80', Servais M. ↓, Raman B. ↑,
81', Mirisola R. 🟨,
84', van Brederode M. ↓, Kireev M. ↑,
86', Vanderbiest F. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mechelen won 1.

Recent performances by Mechelen have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Genk is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Genk will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mechelen: De Wolf O. (Knee Injury) Lenaerts M. (Inactive) Salifou D. (Knock)

There are questionable in Genk: Adedeji-Sternberg N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mechelen won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:39. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mechelen won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Genk	8	3	3	2	16:12	4	12
18	KV Mechelen	7	0	3	4	5:14	-9	3

Last Results with these Odds

KV Mechelen - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 26.85%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
08.02.26	KV Mechelen - Royal Antwerp	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	KV Mechelen - Westerlo	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Saint-Gilloise - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	KV Mechelen - Servette	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTTLW
- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
08.02.26	Genk - Anderlecht	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Dender EH - Genk	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Genk - Malmö	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
25.01.26	Genk - Cercle Brugge	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Utrecht - Genk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
23.11.25	Genk - KV Mechelen	0:1
18.01.25	KV Mechelen - Genk	1:2
28.09.24	Genk - KV Mechelen	2:1
11.02.24	KV Mechelen - Genk	1:1
22.10.23	Genk - KV Mechelen	4:0
17.02.23	KV Mechelen - Genk	2:2
28.10.22	Genk - KV Mechelen	3:1

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