Match Info

Belgian Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Dender Football Complex (Denderleeuw)

Referee: Verbeke B. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Dender EH		Saint-Gilloise

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.7	1.7	Watch
	4.5	3.75	1.75	Watch
	4.55	3.89	1.7
	4.33	3.4	1.7
	4.71	3.66	1.72	Watch
	4.75	3.75	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.53 ↓ (6.07)	3.69 ↓ (4.05)	1.71 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dender EH
20.5%

Draw
25.2%

Saint-Gilloise
54.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

22.9%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

22.3%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dender EH's performance.

Saint-Gilloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Saint-Gilloise might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dender EH that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Saint-Gilloise could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Dender EH - Saint Gilloise Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Union SG (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Saint-Gilloise will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Saint-Gilloise will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Union SG (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Union SG is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Dender EH won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Dender EH won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
27.12.25	KV Mechelen - Dender EH	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Dender EH - Club Brugge	1:5 ✺
05.12.25	RAAL La Louvière - Dender EH	1:2 ✺
Belgian Cup
02.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLLWW
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Saint-Gilloise - Zulte Waregem	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Charleroi - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Saint-Gilloise - Olympique Marseille	2:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
06.12.25	Saint-Gilloise - Gent	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
13.09.25	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:1
01.03.25	Saint-Gilloise - Dender EH	4:1
27.07.24	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:0

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