Match Info

Super Lig - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Eryaman Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Saglam K. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Gençlerbirliği		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.28	3.1	3.19	Watch
	2.38	3.17	3.15	Watch
	2.25	3	3.2
	2.37	3.19	3.39	Watch
	2.22	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.82)	3.11 ↓ (3.17)	3.25 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gençlerbirliği
40.9%

Draw
30.2%

Samsunspor
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

29.8%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

30.3%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gençlerbirliği has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gençlerbirliği's performance.

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Samsunspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gençlerbirliği than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gençlerbirliği that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Samsunspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	12.5%	18.7%

Gençlerbirliği - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Gençlerbirliği will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Samsunspor will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gençlerbirliği: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Velho R. (G) 13. Pereira P. 6. Goutas D. 4. Zuzek Z. 2. Thalisson Kelven 15. Dele-Bashiru T. 35. Ulgun O. 11. Gurpuz G. 70. Tongya F. 10. Mimaroglu M. 22. Koita S.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. 37. Satka L. 15. Diabbate A. B. 28. Gonul S. 55. Cift Y. E. 5. Yuksel C. 2. Mendes J. 20. Kayan Y. 16. Bulbul T. 9. Marius
Substitutes
44. Celik A. 21. Demir D. 77. Dursun A. 18. Erenturk E. (G) 23. Hanousek M. 45. Martor P. 29. Niang M. 8. Onur S. 88. Uzum F. 53. Varesanovic D.	24. Borevkovic T. 99. Ceesay E. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 30. Jarju S. 10. Ntcham O. 7. Tavsan E. 17. Tomasson L. 48. Toruz E. B. (G)
Coaches
Diyadin M.	Reis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Marius ⚽, Kayan Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', 1 - 1, Koita S. ⚽, Ulgun O. (A),
63', Cift Y. E. 🟨,
65', Bulbul T. ↓, Tavsan E. ↑,
65', Kayan Y. ↓, Ntcham O. ↑,
66', Ntcham O. 🟨,
73', Reis T. 🟨,
76', Gurpuz G. ↓, Niang M. ↑,
83', Koita S. ↓, Dursun A. ↑,
84', Ulgun O. ↓, Onur S. ↑,
84', Mendes J. ↓, Tomasson L. ↑,
90+3', Mimaroglu M. ↓, Uzum F. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gençlerbirliği won 0.

Gençlerbirliği is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Samsunspor has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Samsunspor has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Gençlerbirliği: Akkan G. (Injury) Durmaz E. (Suspended) Etebo P. (Muscle Injury) Kyabou M. (Knee Injury) Sahindere A. (Knee Injury) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Coulibaly T. (Knee Injury) Egribayat I. (Inactive) Kilinc E. (Inactive) Ndiaye C. (International duty) Ntcham O. (Injury) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Gençlerbirliği: Csoboth K. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Gençlerbirliği won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gençlerbirliği won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Genclerbirligi	7	2	2	3	7:15	-8	8
16	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	6:15	-9	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gençlerbirliği
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Antalyaspor - Gençlerbirliği	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
08.01.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Gençlerbirliği	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.12.25	Gençlerbirliği - Trabzonspor	4:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
18.12.25	Gençlerbirliği - Bodrumspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
12.12.25	Kasımpaşa - Gençlerbirliği	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.8 WWWWT
- Samsunspor
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Aliaga - Samsunspor	2:6 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
24.12.25	Samsunspor - Eyüpspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
21.12.25	Göztepe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
09.08.25	Samsunspor - Gençlerbirliği	2:1
Turkish First League
18.03.23	Gençlerbirliği - Samsunspor	0:1
08.10.22	Samsunspor - Gençlerbirliği	2:0
15.02.22	Gençlerbirliği - Samsunspor	2:2
19.09.21	Samsunspor - Gençlerbirliği	2:2
Club Friendly
10.01.19	Gençlerbirliği - Samsunspor	1:2

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